黑色商品日报（2026年1月15日）-20260115

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The steel market shows a pattern of narrow - range fluctuations. Although steel exports reached historical highs in 2025, domestic supply - demand margins have weakened, and the short - term disk price is expected to move in a narrow - range [1]. - The iron ore market is expected to show an oscillatory trend due to the mixed influence of supply and demand factors, with attention on restocking demand [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to oscillate in the short term. The coking coal market is affected by production limitations in some mines and increased demand from the recovery of blast furnaces, while the coke market is influenced by the cost of coking coal and the demand for restocking by steel mills [1]. - The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are expected to follow the overall black - commodity trend and oscillate. Their prices are affected by factors such as cost, steel procurement, and inventory [1][3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - Steel: The closing price of the rebar 2605 contract was 3162 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.13%) from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions. Spot prices were stable, and trading volume was low. In December 2025, China's steel exports reached 11.301 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.2%. The annual export volume also hit a record high. Recently, steel mill profits have recovered, production has increased, demand has weakened, and inventory has started to accumulate. It is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range [1]. - Iron Ore: The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract i2605 was 821 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton (0.2%). Port spot prices showed mixed trends. Australian and Brazilian shipments continued to decline, while those from other countries increased. There were new blast furnace overhauls and restarts, and iron - water production increased. Port and steel mill inventories accumulated. It is expected to oscillate [1]. - Coking Coal: The closing price of the coking coal 2605 contract was 1191 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan/ton (3.8%), with a decrease in positions. Some coal mines had production limitations, and steel - mill iron - water production recovered, increasing demand. It is expected to oscillate [1]. - Coke: The closing price of the coke 2605 contract was 1745 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (1.41%), with a decrease in positions. Port spot prices fell. Coking coal prices stopped falling and rebounded, and steel mills' demand for restocking increased. However, the steel market is in the off - season, and some steel mills will still conduct overhauls before the Spring Festival. It is expected to oscillate [1]. - Manganese Silicon: On Wednesday, the manganese silicon futures price weakened, with the main contract closing at 5920 yuan/ton, down 0.34%. The main - contract positions decreased. Market prices in various regions were between 5630 - 5820 yuan/ton. The black - commodity sector was weak, and steel procurement had new progress. Production decreased slightly, demand was supported during steel procurement, and costs were stable with a slight increase. Inventory decreased from a high level but was still significantly higher year - on - year. It is expected to follow the overall black - commodity trend [1][3]. - Ferrosilicon: On Wednesday, the ferrosilicon futures price weakened, with the main contract closing at 5690 yuan/ton, down 0.25%. The main - contract positions decreased. Market prices in various regions were around 5300 - 5350 yuan/ton. Production was relatively stable at a five - year low, demand was supported during steel procurement, costs decreased slightly, and inventory increased. It is expected to follow the overall black - commodity trend [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black commodities such as rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, as well as data on profits and spreads between different varieties [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - 3.1 Main Contract Prices: Displays the closing - price trends of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2021 to 2026 [6][7][9]. - 3.2 Main Contract Basis: Shows the basis trends of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [15][16]. - 3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: Presents the spread trends of inter - period contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [24][25][29]. - 3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spreads: Displays the spread trends of inter - variety contracts such as the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coke - iron ore ratio, coking coal - coke ratio, and double - silicon spread [40][43][44]. - 3.5 Rebar Profits: Shows the profit trends of rebar main - contract disk profits, long - process calculated profits, and short - process calculated profits [46][47][49]. 4. Black Research Team Member Introduction - Introduces members of the black research team, including their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications [51][52].