有色板块调整，镍不锈钢价格震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market is in a state of high inventory and oversupply, and nickel prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to potential changes in Indonesian nickel ore policies [3]. - The stainless - steel market has a situation where cost support and weak demand are in a game. The stainless - steel main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,500 - 14,100 yuan/ton in the short term, and focus should be on the price trend of nickel iron, spot trading volume, and macro - sentiment changes [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - Futures: On January 14, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 140,330 yuan/ton and closed at 140,940 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.11% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,070,694 (-206,996) lots, and the open interest was 109,975 (-9,510) lots. The contract showed a trend of "opening low, wide - range fluctuation, and a slight decline at the end", with sharp intraday fluctuations. The V - shaped rebound of the US dollar index and the correction of the US stock market suppressed the prices of LME nickel and Shanghai nickel [1]. - Nickel Ore: The nickel ore market has a strong price - holding atmosphere. In the Philippines, mine tender prices have continuously risen. A domestic southern factory recently purchased 1.3% grade nickel ore at a CIF price of 42 US dollars. The new round of 1.3% nickel ore tender of the main mine Benguet was concluded at an FOB price of 38 US dollars, showing a significant increase. In Indonesia, the market trading was dull, and the market is waiting for the official announcement of the HPM benchmark price on the 15th. It is expected that the benchmark price in the second half of the month will increase by about 3 - 4 US dollars compared with the first half [2]. - Spot: The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 150,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,700 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot trading was average, and the spot premiums and discounts of various refined nickel brands were mostly stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 150 yuan/ton to 8,750 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 600 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 40,272 (836) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 284,658 (510) tons [2]. Strategy - The overall strategy for nickel is to mainly conduct range operations. There are no specific strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - Futures: On January 14, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel opened at 13,850 yuan/ton and closed at 13,925 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 214,016 (-42,112) lots, and the open interest was 134,879 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a trend of "opening low, rising high, and narrow - range strong fluctuation", supported by the rising price of nickel iron at the cost end and the firm spot price. It was more resistant to decline than Shanghai nickel and finally closed slightly higher, continuing the range - bound pattern [3]. - Spot: After the recent increase in spot prices, the upward momentum of the futures market is insufficient, market caution has increased, and trading has remained light. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,900 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 13,800 (+50) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 40 to 240 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 982.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4]. Strategy - The strategy for stainless steel is neutral. There are no specific strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 13,500 - 14,100 yuan/ton in the short term [4].