工业硅微幅反弹，多晶硅跌速放缓

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - Industrial silicon prices are expected to remain range - bound. The price is clearly supported by the rising coal and photovoltaic industry chain prices under the situation of double - reduction in supply and demand. The upside depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory clearance, while the downside is limited by cost and production cut expectations [3] - The decline rate of polysilicon is gradually slowing down. In the short term, the cancellation of the export tax - rebate policy may boost demand, but it may overdraw medium - and long - term demand. The overall market is moving towards cost - reduction and efficiency - enhancement, and downstream production capacity is accelerating to clear out. The fundamentals are still weak, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term and short on rallies in the medium and long term [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On January 14, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price rose slightly. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,635 yuan/ton and closed at 8,755 yuan/ton, a change of 30 yuan/ton from the previous day's settlement, a 0.34% change. The position of the main contract 2605 was 235,089 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on January 13, 2026 was 11,128 lots, a change of 240 lots from the previous day [1] - Industrial silicon spot prices were basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,300 yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 price was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon price was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [1] - SMM statistics showed that the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on January 8 was 552,000 tons, a 0.9% decrease from the previous week [1] Consumption - According to SMM statistics, the quotation of silicone DMC was 13,700 - 14,000 yuan/ton. The recent cancellation of the photovoltaic VAT export tax - rebate policy is expected to increase short - term polysilicon demand, and strong polysilicon exports are expected to boost the demand side of industrial silicon, with short - term consumption having an upward space [2] - The operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises decreased slightly, and the silicone industry maintained a staggered - peak emission reduction policy. The downstream demand for aluminum alloys showed marginal weakness, and the subsequent operating rate is expected to be mainly stable and weak. Currently, the supply is still slightly in excess, the inventory is still at a high level, the market trading is light, and the fundamentals remain weak [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operation - No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On January 14, 2026, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures fluctuated and declined. It opened at 49,960 yuan/ton and closed at 48,945 yuan/ton, a - 1.46% change from the previous trading day's closing price. The position of the main contract reached 48,439 lots (48,844 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume on that day was 20,942 lots [3] - Polysilicon spot prices remained stable. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 51.00 - 58.50 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 58.50 yuan/kg [4] - SMM statistics showed that polysilicon manufacturers' inventories increased, and silicon wafer inventories increased. The latest statistics showed that polysilicon inventory was 302,000 tons, a - 1.30% change from the previous period, silicon wafer inventory was 26.23GW, a 13.11% change from the previous period, polysilicon weekly output was 23,800 tons, a - 0.80% change from the previous period, and silicon wafer output was 10.52GW, a 3.34% change from the previous period [4] - In terms of silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.39 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.69 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.49 yuan/piece [4] - In terms of battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W, Topcon M10 battery cells were about 0.40 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.40 yuan/W, Topcon 210RN battery cells were 0.40 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W [4][5] - In terms of components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.72 - 0.72 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.74 - 0.75 yuan/W [5] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and the main contract is expected to maintain a weak shock - No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6]