中国12月外贸加速回暖，伊朗局势担忧加剧

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Inflation is a current focus. China aims to boost consumption and promote reasonable price recovery through monetary policies. The future price recovery path depends on supply - side policies. Geopolitical tensions in Iran and Venezuela may impact the global competition for minerals and energy resources. Only economic recession and interest - rate hike expectations can cool down the inflation sentiment [2]. - There is a certain differentiation in domestic and foreign economic outlooks. China's exports and new orders are positive in December, and the trade surplus is large. The country's foreign trade growth rate is expected to remain resilient. The US economy shows mixed signals with manufacturing index decline and inflation changes. Japan may dissolve the House of Representatives and hold an early election [3]. - In the commodity market, focus on high - certainty sectors such as non - ferrous metals and precious metals. There are potential opportunities for low - valued commodities to rise in price. Pay attention to the sentiment risks in the new energy sector, the Iran situation, "anti - involution" space in the chemical sector, and weather and disease factors in the agricultural product sector [4]. - The strategy is to buy stock index futures, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals on dips [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Central economic work conferences in China emphasize boosting consumption and price recovery. The People's Bank of China will use various monetary policy tools. Geopolitical tensions between Iran and Venezuela are rising, and the CME will change the margin setting method for precious metal contracts [2]. Trade Situation - China's exports and imports in December exceed expectations, mainly due to the global AI investment boom and manufacturing recovery. Exports to emerging markets are strong, and trade with the US shows a mixed picture. The domestic demand recovery foundation is not solid. The trade surplus in December is 1141.4 billion US dollars, and the annual surplus exceeds 1 trillion. The US manufacturing index declines, and inflation shows different trends [3]. Commodity Market - Focus on non - ferrous metals (especially aluminum and nickel) and precious metals. There are sentiment risks in the new energy sector. The US has actions related to Venezuelan oil, and there are tensions between the US and Iran. In the chemical sector, pay attention to the "anti - involution" space of some products. In the agricultural product sector, focus on weather and disease. On January 14, some commodity futures and spot silver have significant price increases [4]. Strategy - Suggest to buy stock index futures, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals on dips [5]. Important News - The overall market shows a volatile trend with high trading volume. China's trade data in December is positive. The US core CPI growth is lower than expected. Trump has actions related to the Fed and Iran, which impact the oil market. Japan may dissolve the House of Representatives and hold an early election. Some commodity futures and spot silver have significant price changes [7].