2025年12月进出口点评：出口维持韧性，宽货币概率下降

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In December 2025, exports exceeded expectations despite the high - base effect, with full - year 2025 exports growing 5.5% year - on - year (5.8% in 2024). In 2026, exports may maintain some resilience due to improved external demand and eased Sino - US tariff frictions. The industrialization process of emerging countries may also contribute to exports [2][8]. - Recently, the view of long - term bonds oscillating weakly is maintained. The yields of 10Y and 30Y treasury bonds are expected to adjust to around 1.9% and 2.4% respectively. The probability of broad - based monetary policy is expected to decline, and the opportunity for a staged recovery may come later in the first quarter [2][8]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Event Description - In December 2025, imports and exports exceeded expectations, and the trade surplus remained at a high level. In US dollar terms, the year - on - year growth rate of total imports and exports rebounded by 1.9 pct to 6.2%, reaching $601.4 billion. The trade surplus increased by $2.5 billion to $114.1 billion month - on - month. The year - on - year growth rates of exports and imports rebounded by 0.7 and 3.8 pct to 6.6% and 5.7% respectively [6]. - Month - on - month, both exports and imports were stronger than the seasonal average. In December, the month - on - month growth rate of exports rebounded by 0.2 pct to 8.4%, at a relatively high level in the same period of previous years; the month - on - month growth rate of imports rebounded significantly by 9.9 pct to 11.5%, much better than in previous years [6]. 3.2 Reasons for Export Growth - The contribution of high - end manufacturing products continued to strengthen, especially automobiles and integrated circuits. Hong Kong, China became an important marginal contributor to exports in December. The price support for chemical raw material exports remained [8]. 3.3 Export Performance by Product - Products with high export growth rates were concentrated in chemical raw materials and high - end manufacturing products. The year - on - year growth rates of exports of automobiles, integrated circuits, ships, and liquid crystal panels increased by 19, 14, - 21, and - 1 pct to 72%, 48%, 25%, and 16% respectively compared with the previous month. Some chemical materials such as refined oil and rare earths had year - on - year growth rates that increased by 43 and 18 pct to 42% and 53% respectively. Labor - intensive products such as shoes, toys, household appliances, and clothing and bags continued to have negative year - on - year growth [8]. - In terms of volume - price analysis, the volume and price of traditional export products such as ceramics, bags, and household appliances continued to decline, while chemical raw materials and high - end machinery had price resilience. The year - on - year growth rate of automobile sales increased by 25 pct to 74%, mobile phones had a 15% year - on - year price increase while the volume only decreased by 4% year - on - year [8]. 3.4 Export Performance by Destination - Hong Kong, China and ASEAN had prominent pulling effects, while the pulling effects of Latin America and Africa weakened, and the weight of exports to the US continued to decline. In terms of the pulling rate, the pulling rates of Hong Kong, China and ASEAN on exports increased by 1.4 and 0.6 pct to 3.1% and 2.1% respectively compared with the previous month, while the pulling rates of Latin America, the EU, and Africa decreased by 0.5, 0.4, and 0.3 pct respectively. Month - on - month, the month - on - month growth rate of exports to ASEAN increased by 5.2 pct to 14.2%, while the month - on - month growth rate of exports to Latin America decreased by 10.6 pct to - 1.9%. The weight of exports to the US further declined, and the year - on - year growth rate continued to fall, dropping by about 1.4 pct to - 30% compared with the previous month [8]. 3.5 Import Performance - Imports rebounded significantly, with good performance in commodities. High - tech products (13%) and mechanical and electrical products (9%) continued to recover. In terms of commodities, imports of crude oil, iron ore, and copper ore increased by 5%, 10%, and 33% year - on - year respectively. Imports of steel, refined oil, and coal decreased slightly, while rare earth imports increased by 102% year - on - year, with volume and price increasing by 3% and 96% year - on - year respectively. Among key high - end manufacturing products, imports of automobiles and liquid crystal panels continued to decline, while imports of automatic data processing equipment (18%) and integrated circuits (17%) increased significantly, and the year - on - year growth rate of medical device imports turned positive (5%) [8].