股指期货早报2026.1.15：融资保证金上调，A股短期调整不改上涨趋势-20260115

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas data indicates the resilience of US consumption and rising inflation, which supports the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates. Overnight US stocks' decline has a neutral - to - negative impact on the opening of A - shares today [1]. - Domestically, the A - share market showed a volatile and differentiated trend on Wednesday. The adjustment of the margin ratio for margin trading signaled the management's intention to cool the market, suggesting a short - term adjustment need for the stock index. However, the upward trend remains unchanged, and a daily trading volume of three trillion yuan in the market may become the norm. Attention should be paid to commercial space and AI sectors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Information - Fed: Different Fed officials have different stances on interest rate cuts. Kashkari believes there is no need to cut interest rates in January, while Paulson thinks a small - scale cut later this year might be appropriate. The Beige Book shows that the overall economic activity in eight regions is growing at a slight to moderate pace [4]. - Iran Situation: Trump said that the "killing" in Iran has stopped and there is no execution plan. The US is withdrawing personnel from major bases in the Middle East, while the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has reached the highest level of combat readiness and increased its missile inventory [4]. - Other News: The US Supreme Court has not ruled on the legality of Trump's tariffs. Trump plans to impose a 25% tariff on imported chips not used in US AI, and the White House may expand the scope of chip import tariffs. The margin ratio for margin trading in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges has been raised from 80% to 100% [4][6]. 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - Futures Performance: Different futures contracts of various indexes such as the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 have different closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, and price change rates. For example, the SSE 50 index fell 0.67%, and its IH2601 contract fell 0.88% [11]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume, trading volume changes, trading value, trading value changes, open interest, open interest changes, and net positions of different futures contracts vary. For instance, the total trading volume of all futures was 961,401 lots, with an increase of 203,878 lots [12]. 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - Spot Market Performance: Different indexes and sectors in the spot market showed different trends. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.31%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.56%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.82%. Sectors such as computers, communications, media, and electronics led the gains, while banks, real estate, non - bank financials, and transportation led the losses [2][33]. - Market Style Impact: Different market styles (cyclical, consumption, growth, financial, and stable) have different impacts on the performance of major indexes such as the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 [34][35]. - Valuation and Other Indicators: The report presents the valuation, trading volume, turnover rate, and other indicators of important indexes and Shenwan sectors [37][41][43]. 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - The report provides charts on the central bank's open market operations and the Shibor interest rate level, showing the situation of currency injection, currency withdrawal, and net currency injection, as well as the level of different - term Shibor rates [49][50][51].