海外市场策略：美元人民币汇率两极化

Group 1: Currency Trends - The USD/CNY exchange rate showed a significant "V-shaped" reversal, with the RMB returning to the "6 range" by year-end 2025, influenced by both the weakening USD and domestic growth stabilization policies [7][36]. - The USD index (DXY) experienced a notable decline of approximately 10% throughout 2025, marking a transition from a strong to a weak dollar due to shifts in Federal Reserve policy and softening economic data [7][36]. Group 2: Capital Market Overview - Global capital markets underwent a significant rebalancing, with funds flowing from US equities to more attractively valued Asian markets, particularly as the Fed's interest rate cut expectations fluctuated [12]. - The emerging market (EM) debt market recorded its best performance in years, benefiting from a weaker dollar and global liquidity expansion, despite concerns over economic slowdown [10]. Group 3: Central Bank Policies - The Federal Reserve is expected to adopt a cautious and limited rate-cutting approach in 2026, with a more neutral policy stance due to persistent inflation and fiscal stimulus [17][22]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to maintain stable interest rates in 2026, focusing on controlling inflation without rushing into further easing [17][22]. Group 4: Dollar Depreciation Effects - The anticipated moderate depreciation of the dollar is expected to improve multinational corporate earnings, while the relative resilience of the US economy prevents a dollar collapse, creating favorable macro conditions for US equities [27]. - The credit spread is expected to narrow, and the yield curve is projected to steepen as the Fed lowers short-term rates while long-term rates remain elevated due to fiscal deficits and inflation expectations [30]. Group 5: Commodity Prices - The copper market is poised for a super cycle driven by both old infrastructure (like China's power grid) and new technologies (such as AI computing), with a weaker dollar enhancing purchasing power for non-US buyers [35]. - Global visible inventories of copper are at historically low levels, amplifying price sensitivity to news and making price increases more likely [35]. Group 6: Chinese Market Dynamics - The Chinese stock market is expected to benefit from a return of foreign capital into core A-share assets as the RMB stabilizes and appreciation reduces hedging costs [39]. - The government is likely to shift fiscal spending from traditional infrastructure investments to social welfare and consumption support, with a gradual recovery in government investment anticipated [41][51]. Group 7: Global Economic Outlook - The US economy is projected to grow at around 2% in 2026, characterized by a "soft landing" consensus, while European stocks are expected to underperform due to traditional industry weight and insufficient economic momentum [41]. - China's export structure has diversified successfully, mitigating risks from trade tensions, with a focus on high-tech manufacturing becoming the core driver of export growth [46][58].