——2025年12月美国CPI数据点评：通胀担忧缓和，但短期降息必要性不强

Inflation Data Summary - December 2025 US CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, matching market expectations and previous month’s value[2] - Core CPI rose by 2.6% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 2.7%[2] Market Reactions and Expectations - The lower-than-expected core CPI growth has alleviated inflation concerns, leading to a rise in gold and silver prices post-data release[7] - Market expectations for the first interest rate cut remain set for June 2026, with a 48.1% probability following the CPI release, up from 46.2% the previous day[7] Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate has begun to decline, indicating resilience in the labor market, and a large tax refund is anticipated in Q1 2026, likely boosting economic data[3] - The impact of tariffs on inflation appears limited, as evidenced by the decline in prices for used cars and trucks, which offset price increases in other categories[5] Future Projections - The CPI growth rate is expected to peak at 3.0% in March 2026, with future inflation performance largely dependent on demand-side improvements[6] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance on rate cuts until a new chair is appointed, potentially accelerating the pace of cuts thereafter[3]