Guolian Minsheng Securities·2026-01-14 08:22Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the home appliance industry [1] Core Insights - The industry is at a turning point, with expectations for improved performance in 2026 as domestic demand stabilizes and export orders recover [35] - The report highlights the resilience of leading companies in the white goods sector, with a focus on their ability to navigate through challenging market conditions [7][10] - The overall market dynamics indicate a potential for growth in emerging markets, alongside innovation and product expansion in domestic markets [35] Summary by Sections 1. White Goods - External sales are recovering steadily, while internal sales are expected to remain stable in Q4 2025. Leading companies are well-positioned to benefit from favorable demand and cost environments [7][10] - Q4 2025 internal sales for air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines are projected to decline by 31%, 11%, and 6% respectively, due to high base effects from the previous year [10] - External sales for refrigerators and washing machines are expected to show modest growth, with a 3% increase for refrigerators and a 9% increase for washing machines [10] 2. Black Goods - The report indicates that the color TV market is under pressure, with internal sales declining significantly due to high base effects from previous subsidies [15] - External sales remain relatively stable, with a slight decline of 2% expected in Q4 2025 [15][16] - Leading brands are expected to improve their profitability through product innovation and market share gains [15] 3. Cleaning Appliances - External sales continue to grow, while internal sales face challenges due to high base effects from previous subsidies [19] - The report notes a decline in retail sales for floor cleaning machines and washing machines, with internal sales dropping by 25% and 8% respectively [20] - The external market shows strong growth, particularly in Europe and Asia-Pacific, although competition remains intense [21] 4. Small Appliances - Domestic prices are rising, but external demand remains weak, with overall growth in retail sales expected to be between 0-10% [30] - The report highlights structural improvements in pricing and product upgrades, which may support profit margins in the domestic market [30] - External sales are under pressure due to overall weak demand in international markets [30] 5. Post-Cycle - The report indicates a downturn in demand for major kitchen appliances, with significant declines in retail sales across various categories [33] - The real estate market remains sluggish, impacting demand for kitchen appliances, and the report anticipates continued pressure on sales [33] - The upcoming subsidy policies are expected to have limited coverage, which may further affect market dynamics [33] 6. Industry Views and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the home appliance sector is poised for recovery in 2026, with expectations for improved fundamentals and potential surprises in export performance [35] - Recommended stocks include leading white goods manufacturers such as Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, Gree Electric, and Hisense Home Appliances, as well as TV manufacturers like Hisense Visual and TCL Electronics [35]