供需矛盾有限，沪铅宽幅震荡

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand contradiction of lead in China is limited, and Shanghai lead may fluctuate widely. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the production dynamics of secondary lead, downstream demand, and domestic inventory changes [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Changes - Processing Fees: In November 2025, China imported 110,000 tons of lead concentrate in physical quantity, a year - on - year increase of 15.8% and a month - on - month increase of 11.7%. The domestic lead concentrate market demand is high in winter, and the domestic mine supply shortage continues. The domestic and overseas lead concentrate processing fees remain stable at a low level. The domestic monthly processing fee in January is 200 - 400 yuan/ton, and the import monthly processing fee is - 160--130 US dollars/dry ton, both unchanged month - on - month. The domestic weekly processing fee for lead ore is 250 - 350 yuan/ton, and the import weekly processing fee is - 160--130 US dollars/dry ton, also unchanged week - on - week [2]. - Supply - Primary Lead: In December 2025, the primary lead output was 332,700 tons, a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 1.56%. The weekly operating rate of SMM's three - province primary lead smelters last week was 66.60%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.66%. Some smelters in Hunan, Yunnan, South China, and East China have production fluctuations, maintenance, or delayed resumption of production [3]. - Secondary Lead: In December 2025, the secondary refined lead output was 268,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.35% and a year - on - year increase of 0.83%. The weekly operating rate of SMM's four - province secondary lead last week was 49.01%, a week - on - week increase of 11.42%. After the environmental protection control was lifted, the production of secondary lead enterprises in Anhui gradually resumed. Some enterprises in Henan increased or decreased production due to different reasons. Some large smelters in Inner Mongolia expressed the intention to stop production. The raw material inventory of secondary lead enterprises has further declined, and the later supply release pressure is still limited. The import window of refined lead continues to open, and the profit has increased [3]. - Consumption - The weekly comprehensive operating rate of SMM's five - province lead - acid battery enterprises last week was 65.65%, a week - on - week increase of 0.95%. After the holiday factor is eliminated, the production of lead - acid battery enterprises will continue to recover. The operating rate of large battery enterprises is 70 - 80%, and that of small and medium - sized battery enterprises is about 70%. The finished battery inventory is generally more than 22 days. The energy storage and automobile sectors drive the consumption resilience, but the sales of new - standard electric two - wheeled vehicles are poor, and some enterprises' orders have shrunk [4]. - As of the week of January 9, the domestic lead spot basis fluctuated, and the lead spot basis was at a discount of 15 yuan at the end of last week. The LME lead spot continued to be at a deep discount, with a discount of - 44.05 US dollars at the end of last week [4]. - Inventory - As of the week of January 9, the LME lead weekly inventory decreased by 16,600 tons to 222,700 tons, and the LME inventory has continuously declined from a high level but is still at a high level in recent years. The weekly inventory of lead on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 2,107 tons to 30,111 tons. As of January 12, the total social inventory of SMM's five - place lead ingots reached 24,800 tons, and the inventory continued to rise month - on - month but was at an absolute low level in the past four years [4]. Market Outlook and Strategy - Overseas, the LME lead inventory has continuously declined from a high level, but it is still at an absolute high level, and the spot remains at a deep discount, indicating a continued oversupply situation. The import of lead ore in November increased month - on - month, but the increase was limited, and the domestic mine supply still has a gap. The operating rate of primary lead remains high; the profit of secondary lead is acceptable, but the raw material inventory has further decreased, and the later supply pressure is limited. The import window of lead ingots continues to open, and the pressure of import inflow is relatively large. - Downstream, the energy storage and automobile sectors still drive the consumption resilience, but the consumption of electric bicycles is weak. The domestic lead inventory is accumulating at a low level. Overall, although there are both production cuts and resumptions in China, the supply pressure is not large due to raw material shortages. However, the pressure of import inflow has increased, and the domestic lead supply - demand has weakened marginally. Considering the short - term low domestic inventory, the supply - demand contradiction of lead is limited, and Shanghai lead may fluctuate widely [5].