地方政府债供给及交易跟踪：地方债会接续久期行情？

Report Summary 1. Core View The report focuses on the supply and trading situation of local government bonds, analyzing the issuance rhythm, pricing, and secondary - market trading characteristics of local government bonds [3][4]. 2. Summary by Directory 2.1 Primary Supply Rhythm - From January 5 - 9, 2026, local government bonds worth 117.66 billion yuan were issued, including 87.43 billion yuan of new special bonds and 29.23 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds. The main investment areas of special bond funds are "ordinary/project income" and "replacing implicit debts" [3][10]. - As of January 9, 2026, the issuance of special refinancing bonds in January totaled 132.14 billion yuan, accounting for 46.3% of the monthly local bond issuance scale [3][10]. - The average issuance interest rate of 10 - year local bonds in the latest week was 2.03%, slightly down from the previous week. The coupon average of new 20 - year and 30 - year local bonds was above 2.47%, with the 30 - year long - term bond coupon reaching a 25 - year high. The spread of ultra - long local bonds narrowed marginally, and the spread average of bonds with a term of over 10 years was mostly between 15 - 20bp [3][16]. - In the first week after the new year, local bond issuance was concentrated. Only Shandong and Zhejiang had new bond issuances in January, and the average coupon rates of local government bonds in these regions were above 2.3% [3][16]. 2.2 Secondary Trading Characteristics - The prices of ultra - long local bonds fell significantly. Last week, the weekly declines of 7 - 10 - year and over 10 - year local bond indexes were 0.07% and 0.42% respectively, between those of the same - term treasury bonds and ultra - long credit bonds [4][17]. - The trading volume of Shandong local bonds increased significantly last week, with the weekly trading volume rising from about a hundred before the new year to 201. The trading of local bonds in Sichuan and Jiangsu was also relatively active [4][17]. - In terms of trading returns, the returns of over 20 - year long - term bonds in Shandong and Henan could reach 2.3%, while the average returns of government bonds in other regions were mostly between 1.8% and 2.3% [4][17].