基础设施投融资行业2025年政策回顾及展望：“化债与发展”一体谋划、互促增效

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the infrastructure investment and financing (hereinafter "infrastructure investment") industry policies focused on "controlling new debts and resolving existing debts" and "promoting development", further implementing and refining the requirements of the "comprehensive debt resolution" plan. The industry has entered a critical stage of systematic reshaping, with risks being temporarily mitigated and the corporate financing environment showing marginal improvement [3][4][28]. - As implicit debts are gradually replaced, operating debts are expected to become the key area of focus. Debt resolution work will shift from debt replacement to building long - term mechanisms, achieving "full - scope and centralized" debt management. Future fiscal and tax system reforms are expected to deepen, better matching local fiscal powers and responsibilities, and assisting local debt resolution [18][19][28]. - With the continuous decline of land finance and the replacement of implicit debts, in - depth market - oriented transformation has become the main way out for infrastructure investment enterprises. These enterprises can seek transformation opportunities in the balance between debt resolution and development but need to be vigilant against market - related risks and changes in government - enterprise relationships [25][26][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Policy Review - More Active Fiscal Policy and Coordinated Use of Multiple Tools: In 2025, the fiscal policy was unprecedentedly strong, with the deficit rate exceeding 4% for the first time and the broad deficit scale approaching 14 trillion yuan. Special bonds were used to support the infrastructure investment industry in resolving existing debts. By the end of August 2025, 4 trillion yuan of the one - time increase of 6 trillion yuan in special debt quota had been issued, reducing the average interest cost of debts by over 2.5 percentage points and saving over 450 billion yuan in interest payments. The scope of special bonds was further expanded, and in the second half of the year, 500 billion yuan of local debt balance limits were revitalized, and the new local debt quota for 2026 was advanced. Financial institutions also participated in debt resolution [4]. - Improved Debt Risk Management Mechanisms: In 2025, the central and local governments tightened the supervision network for implicit debts, strengthening control from multiple aspects such as debt monitoring, review, and accountability. The Debt Management Department of the Ministry of Finance was officially established, and local governments deepened the construction of monitoring mechanisms. The financing review was tightened, and the Ministry of Finance publicly announced typical cases of implicit debt accountability twice during the year [5]. - Dynamic Optimization of Debt Risk List Management and Accelerated Exit from Platforms: The government work report in 2025 emphasized the dynamic adjustment of the list of high - risk debt areas. Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Jilin completed their debt resolution tasks and met the conditions for exiting high - risk debt provinces. By the end of 2025, over 70% of financing platforms had exited [6][8][17]. - Deepened Transformation Policies: Policies guided infrastructure investment enterprises to transform from traditional infrastructure investment carriers to market - oriented industrial entities. Multiple policies were introduced to support their transformation, and financing support such as science and technology innovation bonds and infrastructure REITs was provided [9]. - Synergistic Support of Fiscal and Financial Policies: Policies supported the infrastructure investment industry through four pillars: expanding effective investment, innovating financing mechanisms, optimizing the relationship between the central and local governments, and strengthening macro - coordination, aiming to achieve the goal of "resolving debts in development and promoting development in debt resolution" [10]. 3.2 Policy Impact - Accelerated Implementation of Local Government Replacement Bonds and Mitigated Short - term Debt Risks: By December 31, 2025, 2 trillion yuan of refinancing bonds for replacing existing implicit debts were issued, and the new local government bonds reached 5,361.69 billion yuan, exceeding the annual limit. The replacement of implicit debts was accelerated, and short - term debt pressure was relieved [13]. - Tightened Supply of Urban Investment Bonds: In 2025, 7,880 urban investment bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 5,181.873 billion yuan and a net financing of - 238.187 billion yuan. The total issuance decreased by 13.26% year - on - year. The net financing was negative for most months, and the supply of urban investment bonds continued to tighten [14]. - Adjusted Financing Channels and Decreased Bond Financing Costs: Infrastructure investment enterprises adjusted their financing channels, with an increase in the proportion of credit financing and a decrease in the proportion of bond financing. The bond financing costs decreased significantly, and the comprehensive financing costs also dropped to some extent [15]. - Differentiated Negative Public Opinions: In 2025, the number of new bond - issuing infrastructure investment enterprises on the continuous overdue list and the number of newly defaulted non - standard products decreased significantly, but the number of enterprises with multiple historical bill overdue cases showed regional differences. The long - term fundamental improvement of infrastructure investment enterprises' refinancing still requires time, and issues such as operating debts, interest payment pressure, and capital occupation need attention [16]. - New Stage of Debt Resolution and Phased Achievements in "Exiting Platforms" and Transformation: Policies promoted the transformation of infrastructure investment enterprises, and by the end of 2025, nearly 750 enterprises declared themselves as market - oriented operating entities, accounting for about 19% of bond - issuing infrastructure investment enterprises. Local debt management entered a new stage [17]. 3.3 Industry Development Outlook and Opportunities - Operating Debts Becoming the Key Focus: As implicit debts are gradually resolved, operating debts will become the key area of focus. Future resolution methods may be more market - based, and local governments have already introduced policies to promote the resolution of operating debts [18][19][20]. - Continuous Implementation of the "Comprehensive Debt Resolution" Policy: Currently, debt resolution mainly relies on financial means, and substantial repayment is insufficient. Future fiscal and tax system reforms are expected to deepen, and debt resolution methods will become more refined and region - specific [21][22][24]. - Transformation Opportunities for Infrastructure Investment Enterprises: Infrastructure investment enterprises can participate in areas such as urban renewal, smart cities, and green infrastructure construction. However, they need to be vigilant against risks such as market - related and compliance risks and changes in government - enterprise relationships during the transformation process [25][26][27].