向上驱动不足，煤焦低位运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - On January 15, the coke main contract closed at 1,745 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.11%. The trading volume of the main contract was 37,248 lots, a decrease of 1,163 lots from the previous trading day. The spot market price of Rizhao Port's quasi-primary wet quenched coke remained flat week-on-week, while that of Qingdao Port increased by 0.68%. Downstream steel mills are gradually resuming production this week, but the recovery rate is slow, and the improvement in coke fundamentals is limited. The relative positive factor lies in the strong supply-side expectations of upstream coking coal. Currently, the fundamentals of coke itself are still weak, but after entering the new year, the upward drivers of economic policy expectations, "anti-involution" policy expectations, and downstream winter storage replenishment expectations are gradually emerging, resulting in a low-level adjustment of coke prices under the influence of both long and short factors [5][31]. - On January 15, the coking coal main contract closed at 1,187.5 points, with an intraday decline of 1.00%. The trading volume of the main contract was 505,837 lots, an increase of 4,539 lots from the previous trading day. After a rebound last week, coking coal futures returned to a volatile pattern this week. At present, the supply and demand of coking coal are both increasing, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. The expectations of winter storage replenishment and coal mine shutdown during the Spring Festival have already been factored in. Future upward momentum of coal prices may rely on policy drivers. Without policy intervention, coal prices may be suppressed by fundamentals and remain at a low level before the Spring Festival [6][32]. Summary by Directory Industry News - The central bank decided to cut the rediscount and relending rates by 0.25 percentage points starting from January 19, 2026. After the cut, the 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year relending rates for supporting agriculture and small businesses are 0.95%, 1.15%, and 1.25% respectively. The rediscount rate is 1.5%, the pledged supplementary lending rate is 1.75%, and the special structural monetary policy tool rate is 1.25% [8]. - On January 15, the price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market remained stable. The ex-factory price of low-sulfur primary coking coal with A9, S0.5, V20, and G85 was 1,620 yuan/ton including tax [9]. Spot Market - Rizhao Port's quasi-primary coke flat price was 1,470 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week, down 3.29% from the end of last month, down 13.02% from the end of last year, and down 10.37% year-on-year. Qingdao Port's quasi-primary coke ex-warehouse price was 1,480 yuan/ton, up 0.68% from the previous week, up 2.07% from the end of last month, down 8.64% from the end of last year, and down 5.13% year-on-year. - The price of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimao Port was 1,215 yuan/ton, up 9.46% from the previous week, up 7.52% from the end of last month, up 2.97% from the end of last year, and up 2.97% year-on-year. The price of Australian coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,590 yuan/ton, up 3.25% from the previous week, up 5.30% from the end of last month, up 6.71% from the end of last year, and up 7.43% year-on-year. The price of Shanxi coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,750 yuan/ton, up 6.06% from the previous week, up 2.94% from the end of last month, up 14.38% from the end of last year, and up 14.38% year-on-year [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of the coke main contract was 1,745 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.11%. The highest price was 1,769.5 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,717 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 19,540 lots, a decrease of 2,865 lots from the previous trading day, and the trading volume was 37,248 lots, a decrease of 1,163 lots from the previous trading day. - The closing price of the coking coal main contract was 1,187.5 points, with a decline of 1.00%. The highest price was 1,206.5 points, the lowest price was 1,168 points, the trading volume was 1,022,581 lots, a decrease of 234,639 lots from the previous trading day, and the trading volume was 505,837 lots, an increase of 4,539 lots from the previous trading day [13]. Related Charts - The report provides charts on coke inventory (including 230 independent coking plants, port total inventory, 247 steel mill coking plants, and total inventory), coking coal inventory (including mine-mouth, all-sample independent coking plants, port, and 247 sample steel mills), domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [14][20][26]. Market Outlook - The analysis of coke and coking coal is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the current market situation, influencing factors, and future trends of the two [31][32].