钢材&铁矿石日报：现实格局弱稳，钢矿震荡回落-20260115

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - Rebar: The main contract price fluctuates, with a daily decline of 0.13%. Demand has improved slightly, but the downstream remains weak, and the supply is weakly stable. The steel price is under pressure in the off - season and is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, with attention paid to steel mill production [5]. - Hot - rolled coil: The main contract price fluctuates with a 0% daily decline. Demand shows some resilience, but supply is at a high level and there are concerns about demand. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - Iron ore: The main contract price fluctuates downward, with a daily decline of 1.03%. Supply remains high, and although demand has improved, fundamental contradictions in the ore market are accumulating. The price is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, with attention paid to steel mill restocking [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - The central bank reported that in 2025, the annual RMB loans increased by 16.27 trillion yuan, M2 increased by 8.5% year - on - year, and the year - end social financing scale stock was 442.12 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3% [7]. - By the end of December 2025, over 5500 plots of land were planned to be acquired using special bonds, with a planned acquisition area of nearly 300 million square meters, and more than 300 billion yuan of corresponding special bonds had been issued [8]. - Ukraine's Ferrexpo produced 6.1 million tons of iron ore in 2025, a 9% decrease from 2024 but maintaining above 6 million tons for the second consecutive year. In Q4 2025, production was affected by attacks, with a 29% decline from the previous quarter and a 38.9% decline year - on - year [9]. 2. Spot Market - Steel products: Rebar's Shanghai price is 3260 yuan/ton, Tianjin is 3200 yuan/ton, and the national average is 3346 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil's Shanghai price is 3290 yuan/ton, Tianjin is 3190 yuan/ton, and the national average is 3309 yuan/ton. The rebar - scrap spread is 1150 yuan/ton, and the coil - rebar spread is 30 yuan/ton [10]. - Iron ore: PB powder in Shandong ports is 815 yuan/ton, Tangshan iron concentrate is 782 yuan/ton, the Australian sea freight is 7.52, and the Brazilian sea freight is 20.38. The SGX swap price (current month) is 108.00, and the iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) is 107.80 [10]. 3. Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the active contract is 3160 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.13%, a trading volume of 754,088, and an open interest of 1,685,122 [12]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the active contract is 3307 yuan/ton, with no change, a trading volume of 326,133, and an open interest of 1,448,345 [12]. - Iron ore: The closing price of the active contract is 813.0 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.03%, a trading volume of 252,986, and an open interest of 652,402 [12]. 4. Related Charts - Steel inventory: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mill + social) of rebar and hot - rolled coil from 2022 - 2026 [15][20]. - Iron ore inventory: Charts display the inventory of 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines, as well as their seasonal changes and month - on - month changes from 2022 - 2026 [23][25]. - Steel mill production: Charts present the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio, and electric furnace operating rate of steel mills from 2022 - 2026 [29][32]. 5. Market Outlook - Rebar: Demand has improved slightly, but the downstream is still weak, and supply is weakly stable. The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [39]. - Hot - rolled coil: Demand shows some resilience, but supply is at a high level and there are concerns about demand. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to demand performance [40]. - Iron ore: Supply remains high, and although demand has improved, fundamental contradictions in the ore market are accumulating. The price is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill restocking [41].