铜铝回落，镍表现强势

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: The copper price fluctuated downward in the morning and rebounded after hitting the bottom in the afternoon, with a significant drop in open interest. The short - term bullish sentiment cooled, and the 01 contract expired with a weakening near - month spread. The electrolytic copper inventory continued to accumulate, and downstream industries showed a strong wait - and - see attitude. The futures price is expected to fluctuate and wait for industrial follow - up [6]. - Aluminum: The aluminum price decreased with a reduction in positions, and the intraday main futures price once dropped to the 24,000 mark, then rebounded slightly in the afternoon. The short - term macro - atmosphere cooled with strong bullish liquidation intentions. As the aluminum price reached the 24,000 mark, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased significantly. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 24,000 mark [7]. - Nickel: The nickel price soared and then fell last night and fluctuated weakly today but showed strong performance in the non - ferrous sector. The short - term macro - atmosphere cooled, and the strong performance of nickel was mainly due to positive supply - side expectations. The nickel production quota in Indonesia is expected to be adjusted to 250 - 260 million tons. The short - term macro - cooling is dominated by the marginal decrease in industrial supply, leading to the strong operation of the nickel price. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the 150,000 mark [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Copper: Affected by the high and volatile copper price, the procurement volume of scrap copper by downstream enterprises decreased significantly, and the market trading activity was weak. The price fluctuations made it difficult to form a unified pricing mechanism, and the transaction progress was hindered. In the European, American and Asian markets, most scrap - copper holders were waiting for a clearer market price. In some markets like South Korea, high - quality scrap - copper holders raised prices due to tight supply [10]. - Aluminum: On January 15th, SMM reported that the inventory in Shanghai continued to increase, with a 17,400 - ton increase compared to January 12th, mainly in the form of warehouse receipts. It is expected that the quotation for the SHFE copper 2602 contract will still be at a discount on Friday [11]. - Nickel: On January 14th, 2026, the Indonesian Energy and Mineral Resources Department stated that this year's nickel production quota would be strategically adjusted to 250 - 260 million tons. The existing quota is allowed to be extended until March 31st, 2026, and the actual annual supply depends on later government evaluations and quota additions [12]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - Copper: The report provides charts on copper basis, monthly spread, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [13][19][15]. - Aluminum: The report includes charts on aluminum basis, monthly spread, domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory, overseas electrolytic aluminum exchange inventory, SHFE - LME ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [26][32][28]. - Nickel: There are charts on nickel basis, monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [38][44][40].