固定收益点评报告：化债新阶段目标与市场影响

Group 1: Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the core goal of debt resolution will shift from reducing debt scale and interest costs in the short term to building a modern local fiscal system and investment - financing mechanism compatible with high - quality development. The work will continue to clear the remaining implicit debt by the end of 2028 and focus more on fundamentally improving the health of local finances [2][8]. - The policy focus will shift from simply "addressing debt resolution" to more precisely balancing multiple goals such as "resolving existing risks", "supporting reasonable new investments", and "preventing new risks" [3][9]. - The impact of debt resolution on the capital market will shift from "credit risk premium compression" to "structural asset revaluation based on regional fiscal health and growth potential" [4][9]. - The historical mission of this round of debt resolution will be upgraded to responding to the call of the central government to "address local fiscal difficulties", laying a solid institutional and credit foundation for local governments to "cultivate endogenous growth power" and ensuring the smooth implementation of the 15th Five - Year Plan [5][10]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Event - 2026 is a crucial connecting year between the end of the 14th Five - Year Plan and the start of the 15th Five - Year Plan. The core goal of debt resolution will be deepened [1]. Investment Highlights - The Central Economic Work Conference at the end of 2025 marked that addressing local fiscal sustainability became a key annual task. The policy aims to establish a long - term mechanism to enhance local self - generated financial resources and reduce dependence on land finance and debt expansion [2][8]. Policy Focus Shift - With the significant mitigation of systemic risks, policies need to balance multiple goals. In 2026, necessary fiscal deficits, debt scales, and expenditure amounts should be maintained. Fiscal management should be strengthened, and expenditure structure should be optimized [3][9]. Market Impact Overall Impact - As the "asset shortage" persists and interest rates remain low, the impact of debt resolution on the capital market will shift to structural asset revaluation based on regional fiscal health and growth potential [4][9]. Bond Market - Credit spreads in different regions will reappear and differentiate based on fiscal health, economic growth potential, and governance capabilities. Assets in regions with successful fiscal problem - solving will receive higher premiums [4][9]. Stock Market - The "stock - bond seesaw" effect may be strengthened during the 15th Five - Year Plan. Fiscal policies will guide more resources to technology innovation, industrial upgrading, and consumption - related fields, providing clear investment lines for the equity market [4][10].