光伏及电池产品出口退税调整点评：抢出口驱动显现，光伏、锂电、集运影响几何？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The photovoltaic sector may experience a significant rush - to - export market in the first quarter, which will marginally benefit the demand for related products. The lithium - battery sector, including batteries and ternary materials, has short - term rush - to - export drivers. The "rush - to - export" in the photovoltaic sector will have a certain impact on the container shipping index (European line) [4][18][36]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Photovoltaic Sector - Export Tax Rebate System: The export tax rebate system for photovoltaic products dates back to 2013. It has been adjusted several times, and from April 1, 2026, the export tax rebate for photovoltaic cells and modules will be cancelled. The expected cancellation of the tax rebate in 2025 Q3 led to a 10% quarter - on - quarter increase in component exports [7]. - Impact on the Industry: China's photovoltaic exports are mainly components, with about 40% going to Europe. After the cancellation of the tax rebate in April, the export cost per watt of components is expected to increase by $0.008 (equivalent to RMB 0.06 per watt), and the export profit per watt will drop to -$0.012, leading to potential losses in component exports [10]. - European Market Situation: The overall economic weakness in Europe, subsidy reduction, and limited grid capacity will lead to a 3% year - on - year decline in new photovoltaic installations in 2026. However, there is a clear peak - off - peak cycle. Before the policy adjustment on April 1, there will be a significant rush - to - export market, and component exports in Q1 2026 are expected to increase by 8 - 10GW compared to previous expectations [14]. - Demand for Related Products: In the first quarter, domestic installation demand is weak, but the rush - to - export of components will improve overall demand. It is expected to bring about 8 - 10GW of component demand increment, which will marginally benefit the demand for main and auxiliary materials of photovoltaic components [17]. 3.2 Lithium - Battery Sector - Export Tax Rebate Policy: The export tax rebate for lithium - ion batteries will be reduced to 9%, 6%, and 0% in December 2024, April 2026, and January 2027 respectively. The first reduction had no obvious impact, and in November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year exports of power and energy - storage batteries increased by 47% and 74% respectively [20]. - Impact on Leading Enterprises: The export tax rebate cancellation may reduce the policy support for enterprises by $1.8 billion. However, enterprises with a stable overseas market and strong bargaining power can better withstand the impact [21]. - Export Demand of Power Batteries: Power and energy - storage lithium - ion batteries rely on the export market by about 16% and 24% respectively. The core export area for power batteries is Europe. Although affected by US tariffs, the demand has strong resilience, and there will be a moderate "rush - to - export" demand [24]. - Energy - Storage Batteries: The domestic energy - storage battery market is highly competitive. With the cancellation of the 9% export tax rebate, there will be a strong "rush - to - export" demand in the Middle East, Chile and other regions. However, the current production capacity of battery factories is nearly saturated, so short - term export increments are limited [28]. - Ternary Materials: The export tax rebate for ternary materials and precursors will be reduced from 13% to 0%, with a greater impact on profits. NCM and NCM precursor materials mainly rely on exports to Japan and South Korea. The export tax rebate cancellation will have a greater impact on the upstream of the ternary lithium - battery industry chain and may stimulate a "rush - to - export" demand [31][35]. 3.3 Container Shipping Sector - Transport Demand: In 2025, the export of photovoltaic components to 12 European countries decreased by 6% compared to the same period in 2024. It is estimated that the "rush - to - export" of components may lead to the pre - shifting of 20,000 - 50,000 TEU of transport demand on the European line from Q2 to Q1, and the total transport demand on the European - Mediterranean route may increase by 40,000 - 70,000 TEU [39]. - Impact on Container Shipping European Line: The concentrated "rush - to - export" may occur from late February to March. The 20,000 - 50,000 TEU transport increment in the photovoltaic industry is difficult to change the monthly - level over - capacity situation. It will have a marginal positive impact on the loading rate from February to March but is negative for the transport demand after April. For the futures market, EC2602 is basically unaffected, and EC2604 has a downward - driving force, but it may not show an overly pessimistic discount [42].