——2025年11月美国零售数据点评：消费反弹，美国一季度经济继续偏强

Economic Performance - In November 2025, U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% month-on-month, surpassing market expectations of 0.4%[6] - Core retail sales (excluding automobiles and gasoline) rose by 0.5%, also above the expected 0.4%[5] - The consumer confidence index reached 54.0 in January 2026, up from 51.0 in October 2025 and 52.9 in November 2025, indicating improved consumer sentiment[23] Market Reactions - Following the release of retail data, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices fell by 0.09%, 0.53%, and 1.00% respectively[2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 3 basis points to 4.15%, while the 2-year yield fell by 2 basis points to 3.51%[2] Future Outlook - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q4 2025 is expected to decline to 1.1% from 4.3% in Q3, but a rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in Q1 2026 due to a low base effect[8] - Tax refunds in Q1 2026 are projected to total between $100 billion and $150 billion, potentially boosting GDP growth by 0.2-0.3 percentage points[9] Interest Rate Projections - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve may first cut interest rates in June 2026, with a 47.0% probability of a 25 basis point reduction[26] - The likelihood of a government shutdown at the end of January 2026 is currently estimated at 30%, considered a low probability event[10]