原木：供需偏弱，底部区间

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2025, the domestic log price in New Zealand bottomed out and rebounded, while the export log price first rose and then fell. The international market demand is poor, and the New Zealand log industry is still in a depression cycle. The domestic coniferous log market in China shows the characteristics of "weak peak season and strong off - season", with overall weak supply and demand, and the log price is in a downward cycle with limited rebound height [6][7][18]. - It is expected that in 2026, the log production in New Zealand will remain high, but the export volume to China may decrease year - on - year. The domestic log market in China will still be in a low - inventory balance stage, with the inventory and price moving in the opposite direction. The short - term log price may rebound, but the medium - and long - term price is still under downward pressure [26][30][127]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 New Zealand Log Price - Domestic Log Price: In 2024, the domestic log price in New Zealand dropped to the lowest in the past five years, at 129 New Zealand dollars per cubic meter. In 2025, it rebounded from 129 New Zealand dollars per cubic meter in the first quarter to 135 New Zealand dollars per cubic meter, with a growth rate of 4.65%. In the second and third quarters, the price fluctuated slightly around 134 New Zealand dollars per cubic meter [6]. - Export Log Price: In 2025, the export log price in New Zealand first rose to 154 New Zealand dollars per cubic meter in the first quarter and then fell to 132 New Zealand dollars per cubic meter in the second and third quarters, with a decline of 14.28% [7][14]. 3.2 New Zealand Log Export - Export Volume: From January to September 2025, New Zealand exported a total of 15.7 million cubic meters of logs, a year - on - year increase of 3.66%. Among them, the export volume to China was 14.16 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 3.88%. The export volume to China increased significantly in the second and third quarters, with year - on - year growth rates of 11.7% and 6.7% respectively [26]. - Relationship between Export Volume to China and Price: There is a strong positive relationship between the export volume of New Zealand logs to China and the export price. Historically, the export price is a leading indicator of the year - on - year growth rate of the export volume to China. It is expected that in 2026, the year - on - year export volume of New Zealand logs to China will decline [30]. 3.3 New Zealand Log Inventory - Sawmill Inventory: As of the end of September 2025, the domestic sawmill inventory in New Zealand was 543,000 cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.05%. Since 2020, the sawmill inventory has entered a stocking cycle, and since 2023, it has entered a destocking cycle [39]. 3.4 New Zealand Log Supply Forecast - In the short term, factors such as log price, freight, and exchange rate affect the profit of log harvesting and the willingness of planters to cut logs. In the long term, the log supply is related to the number of newly planted trees, cutting volume, and age structure. It is expected that in 2026, the log production in New Zealand will remain high, and after 2027, it will start to decline, reaching 25 million cubic meters in 2034 and then gradually rising to about 32 million cubic meters [42][43][52]. 3.5 Domestic Coniferous Log Spot Market in China - Price Trend: In 2025, the log futures price fluctuated downward. The "Golden Three and Silver Four" peak season demand was lower than expected, and the spot price continued to fall due to high inventory pressure. In the third quarter, the price rebounded slightly, but the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" demand was also disappointing, and the price returned to the previous low [77][82]. - Import and Inventory: From January to November 2025, China imported a total of 22.1533 million cubic meters of coniferous logs, a year - on - year decrease of 7.07%. The inventory was still at a low level. In the first quarter, it was at a historical low. In the second quarter, the destocking progress was slow, and the inventory increased year - on - year. In the third quarter, the inventory decreased year - on - year, but after October, it increased year - on - year due to high arrival volume [87][88]. - Demand Characteristics: In 2025, the domestic log demand showed the characteristics of "weak peak season and strong off - season". The peak daily average outbound volume during the "Golden Three and Silver Four" was only 71,600 cubic meters, lower than that in 2023 and 2024. The "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" demand was also lower than expected. However, the demand in the off - season from May to August was relatively strong, with the daily average outbound volume remaining around 60,000 cubic meters [95][100]. 3.6 Downstream Demand - The real estate market is still in a downturn. In 2025, the year - on - year cumulative decline in the newly started area of housing increased, indicating weak downstream demand. Although the year - on - year decline in the sales area of commercial housing has been narrowing, the real estate development investment has not improved significantly [104][107]. 3.7 Log Inventory and Price Cycle - From 2022 to 2023, the inventory and price showed a positive relationship because the industry was in an active destocking cycle with over - supply and weak demand. In 2024, the market entered a new balance stage, and the inventory and price returned to a negative relationship. In 2025, the market was still in a low - inventory balance stage, and the inventory and price should continue to move in the opposite direction [115][121].