软商品日报：震荡为主-20260115

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is expected to remain in a short - term oscillatory adjustment with limited downside space, and attention should be paid to the support around the 20 - day line [1]. - The short - term upward momentum of the sugar market is weak, but the double - festival stocking may boost demand, and one can consider buying on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Cotton - In December 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were $25.992 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 7.35% and a month - on - month increase of 8.89%. Among them, textile exports were $12.58 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 4.16% and a month - on - month increase of 2.48%; clothing exports were $13.412 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 10.15% and a month - on - month increase of 15.69% [1]. - From January to December 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were $293.767 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 2.42%. Among them, textile exports were $142.585 billion, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%; clothing exports were $151.182 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5% [1]. - The USDA's cotton report is slightly bullish, but the price increase space is restricted due to the ineffective transmission of upstream price increases downstream [1]. Sugar - In the first half of December, the sugar production and sugar - making ratio in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased year - on - year, but the impact on the international sugar market was limited [2]. - The current focus of the short - term market is on the actual implementation of the production increase in the northern hemisphere main producing countries [2]. - The estimated cost of processed Brazilian sugar within the quota after tax is 3,947 yuan/ton, and that outside the quota is 5,011 yuan/ton. The estimated profit of processed Brazilian sugar within the quota after tax compared with the Rizhao white sugar spot price is 1,573 yuan/ton, and that outside the quota is 509 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis repair of sugar futures and spot has basically been completed, and the valuation of far - month contracts has also been somewhat repaired. The near - month contracts still face great supply pressure [2].