PP日报：震荡运行-20260115

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - PP is expected to move in a volatile manner with limited upside potential due to limited improvement in the supply - demand pattern and shortened downstream order cycles, and the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week ending January 9, after the New Year's Day holiday, the downstream PP operating rate decreased by 0.10 percentage points to 52.6% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the main downstream plastic weaving for drawstring decreased by 0.22 percentage points to 42.92% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - On January 15, there were few changes in the overhauled units, and the PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 81%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring decreased to around 24.5% [1][4] - The inventory accumulation during the New Year's Day this year was not significant, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - Due to the escalating turmoil in Iran, Trump's threat to interfere, the lack of progress in Russia - Ukraine negotiations, and the sanction bill on Russia, the crude oil price rebounded slightly. There is new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical put into operation in mid - October, and the number of overhauled units has slightly decreased recently [1] - The price of downstream BOPP film rebounded, but with the approaching Spring Festival holiday, new orders for downstream plastic weaving are limited. The macro - environment is positive, but the improvement in the PP supply - demand pattern is limited [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2605 contract increased in position and moved in a volatile manner, with a low of 6552 yuan/ton, a high of 6664 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6592 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, up 0.24%. The open interest increased by 7306 lots to 491,662 lots [2] - Spot: Most of the PP spot prices in various regions were stable. The drawstring was quoted at 6180 - 6680 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 15, there were few changes in the overhauled units, and the PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 81%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring decreased to around 24.5% [1][4] - Demand: As of the week ending January 9, after the New Year's Day holiday, the downstream PP operating rate decreased by 0.10 percentage points to 52.6% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the main downstream plastic weaving for drawstring decreased by 0.22 percentage points to 42.92% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - Inventory: On Thursday, the petrochemical morning inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 530,000 tons week - on - week, 5,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The inventory accumulation during the New Year's Day this year was not significant, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4] Raw Material End - The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below $65 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat week - on - week at $750 per ton [6]