螺纹日报：震荡整理-20260115

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautiously bullish view on the steel industry, suggesting that it is relatively safe to buy on dips [4]. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current demand for rebar is seasonally weak, but the data released this week shows an increase, indicating that winter storage demand is starting. Production has slightly decreased and is at a relatively low level compared to recent years. The anti - involution policy is expected to reduce production capacity, providing support. Inventory has slightly decreased and is at a relatively low level with little pressure. The raw material cost is strong, and the real estate demand continues to decline, limiting the upside, but infrastructure demand may have some resilience [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The rebar main contract decreased its open interest by 6,339 lots on Thursday. The trading volume shrank compared to the previous trading day, with 754,088 lots. It fluctuated throughout the day, with a short - term retracement to the 5 - day moving average and support from the 10 - day moving average. It remained above the 20 - day moving average in the medium term, closing at 3,160 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton or 0.13% [1]. - Spot price: The spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar in the mainstream area was stable at 3,300 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [1]. - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 140 yuan/ton to the spot price. The large basis provided some support, and winter storage on the futures market was cost - effective [1]. Fundamental Data - Supply: As of the week of January 15, rebar production decreased by 0.74 tons week - on - week to 1.903 million tons, after four consecutive weeks of increase. It was 29,900 tons lower year - on - year. The production decline provided some support to prices [2]. - Demand: Apparent consumption increased by 153,800 tons week - on - week to 1.9034 million tons as of the week of January 15, and was 51,900 tons higher year - on - year. After three consecutive weeks of decline, the apparent consumption rebounded significantly, indicating that winter storage demand might have started [2]. - Inventory: Total inventory decreased by 400 tons week - on - week to 4.3807 million tons. Social inventory increased by 52,300 tons to 2.9541 million tons but was still at a low level in recent years, while steel mill inventory decreased by 52,700 tons to 1.4266 million tons. The increase in social inventory indicated weak downstream demand, and the decrease in steel mill inventory suggested that traders were conducting winter storage [2]. Macro - environment - The central economic meeting proposed to use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts flexibly and efficiently to maintain sufficient liquidity and smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism. It aimed to stabilize the real estate market, control new construction, reduce inventory, and optimize supply. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December as expected. The macro - environment was moderately positive. The 15th Five - Year Plan provided a transformation path for the steel industry, focusing on "controlling production capacity, optimizing structure, promoting transformation, and improving quality." Although incremental demand was relatively limited, the loose cycle provided some support, and the demand ceiling determined the pressure [3]. Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Inventory is at a three - year low, the supply side is reducing production due to anti - involution, production capacity is strictly controlled, policies support demand, post - holiday demand will marginally improve, and the macro - environment is expected to be loose [4]. - Bearish factors: Inventory may increase more than expected after the Spring Festival, the de - stocking speed may slow down, blast furnace restart may accelerate, winter storage demand is cautious, real estate demand continues to decline, exports are restricted, and economic recovery is weak [4]. Short - term View Summary - The short - term view is to maintain a cautiously bullish stance, pay attention to the support near the 10 - day moving average, and it is relatively safe to buy on dips [4].