白糖：先抑后扬，关注天气风险

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The report predicts that Zhengzhou sugar futures will show a trend of first decline and then rise in 2026, with the weather conditions in the third quarter being the key to the market turning point. The global sugar market is affected by factors such as production in major producing countries, weather conditions, and sugar - alcohol price ratios. Overall, the sugar price is expected to be under pressure in the first half of the year and may reverse if there is insufficient rainfall in the third quarter [170]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Brazil - 25/26 Season Production: As of the first half of December 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 40.158 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.86%. Although the sugarcane crushing volume decreased due to lower yields, the high sugar - making ratio led to high sugar production. It is estimated that the sugar production in the 25/26 season will remain above 40 million tons, and the estimated sugarcane yield is 72 tons per hectare, a year - on - year decrease of 6.5% [8][25][26]. - Sugar - Alcohol Price Ratio: The sugar - alcohol price difference in Brazil peaked at the end of 2023 and then declined. In most of 2025, the sugar - alcohol price difference was relatively high, and sugar mills maximized sugar production. As of the end of November 2025, the cumulative ethanol production in the central - southern region decreased by 5.43% year - on - year. The alcohol - oil price ratio increased year - on - year but remained at a historically low level, and the sugar - alcohol price ratio decreased significantly, digesting the negative factors [33]. - Export and Inventory: In 2025, Brazil's cumulative sugar exports from January to December were 33.8728 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.67‰. The sugar inventory in the central - southern region decreased year - on - year from April to August and was at the lowest level in recent years. However, with the increase in sugar production and the decrease in exports, the inventory began to increase from September. As of November 30, the inventory was 10.41 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16% [52]. - Weather and Future Outlook: In the fourth quarter of 2025, the rainfall in the rainy season in Brazil was not ideal, but the rainfall in December was abundant, alleviating the previous drought. It is expected that the rainfall in the first quarter of 2026 in the central - southern region will be less than usual, which is not conducive to sugarcane growth. Due to the decline in the sugar - alcohol price ratio, Brazilian sugar mills are likely to reduce the sugar - making ratio in 2026 [62][67]. India - 25/26 Season Production Forecast: The sugar production in the 25/26 season is expected to increase significantly. The sugarcane planting area is 5.85 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 8.95%. The rainfall in 2025 was abundant, which is beneficial to sugarcane growth, and the yield is expected to increase significantly. It is estimated that 4.5 million tons of sugar will be used for ethanol production. The Indian Sugar and Bio - energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) estimates that the total sugar production in the 2025/26 season will be 34.35 million tons, and the net sugar production will be 30.95 million tons. As of December 31, 2025, the sugar production in the 2025/26 season was 11.897 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25% [79][85]. Thailand - 25/26 Season Production Forecast: Affected by the decline in international sugar prices, the sugarcane purchase price in Thailand has been adjusted downwards. However, due to other incentive policies, farmers' enthusiasm for planting sugarcane has been guaranteed. The Thai Sugarcane New Policy has introduced a differential subsidy mechanism, and the Thai Sugar Industry Committee expects the sugarcane planting area in the 2025/26 season to be 1.68 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 8%. The US Department of Agriculture estimates that the sugarcane production in the 2025/26 season will be 96 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1%, and the sugar production will be 10.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2%. The Thai Sugar Company estimates that the sugar production in the 25/26 season will be 10.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.58%. As of January 12, 2026, the sugar production in the 2025/26 season was 2.1717 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 583,600 tons, a decrease of 21.18% [90][93]. China - 24/25 Season Situation: The national sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.03%. As of the end of September, the cumulative sugar sales were 10.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%. The cumulative sugar sales rate was 93.9%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.51 percentage points. The industrial inventory was 682,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 90%. The sugarcane yield in Guangxi decreased year - on - year, but due to the increase in planting area and sugar extraction rate, the sugar production increased year - on - year. The domestic sugar import volume first decreased and then increased in 2025. The syrup import volume decreased significantly due to policy influence [114][123]. - Guangxi Situation: In 2025, the rainfall in Guangxi was uneven, with drought and flood coexisting. The rainfall from January to April was very low, but the heavy rain in May effectively alleviated the drought. The rainfall from July to September, especially in September, is the key factor determining the sugarcane yield. The rainfall in September and October 2025 was sufficient, which is beneficial to sugarcane growth, and the yield is expected to remain high. The sugarcane vegetation index in Guangxi increased year - on - year, indicating good growth and an expected increase in yield. In the long - term, if an El Niño phenomenon occurs in the third quarter of 2026, the sugarcane - producing areas in Guangxi may face drought, and the sugar production in the 26/27 season may decrease [131][141][158].