LME暂停KZ及YP锌交割，沪锌突破25000元

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, there is upward room for zinc ingot prices, and the overall base metal sector is strong. With the potential fermentation of the Fed's policy damage and weak - dollar expectations, it will provide support for zinc prices. However, in the medium - to - long term, global zinc production is still increasing, and the supply of zinc ingots at home and abroad is expected to be excessive in 2026. The short - term zinc price may fluctuate at a high level, and shorting should be cautious. The recommended price range is adjusted to 22,000 - 26,000 yuan/ton [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - The Shanghai zinc price has broken through 25,000 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc price has broken through $3,000/ton. The driving factors include: the long - opened Chinese zinc export window from early October to mid - December 2025, the slow recovery of domestic zinc ingot supply after the LME price settlement, the significant rise of other base metals attracting capital attention to zinc, and the LME's suspension of KZ and YP zinc交割 from April 14, 2026. In 2024, Korea Zinc and Young Poong's zinc production was 1.03 million tons and 0.21 million tons respectively, accounting for 9% of the global total. If the suspension is long - term and overseas zinc smelters have production problems in 2026, LME zinc inventory will not significantly recover. But the LME plans to limit members with large positions in near - month contracts, so the squeeze - out pressure on LME zinc is expected to be low [2] Fundamental Situation - Macro - wise, the Fed's policy and weak - dollar expectations are still fermenting, and the central economic work conference set a positive tone. Overall, the macro - expectation is stable. Supply - side, after the LME price settlement, the Shanghai - LME ratio has risen, the zinc concentrate import window has opened, the decline of imported zinc concentrate has slowed, and domestic zinc concentrate production has stabilized. Zinc smelters' raw material inventory and zinc concentrate port inventory are okay, so the decline in zinc ingot production may ease. The domestic zinc ingot export window has closed, but previously locked - price zinc ingots will still be exported, and it takes time for zinc concentrate imports to significantly increase. So, the domestic zinc ingot supply cannot be significantly loosened in the short term. Demand - side, with the arrival of the downstream consumption off - season, terminal demand remains weak, but some enterprises have pre - holiday stocking needs, so the decline in zinc ingot demand may not be obvious. In short, the domestic zinc ingot social inventory is still decreasing [3] Summary and Strategy - Short - term: Zinc prices may fluctuate at a high level, and shorting should be cautious. The price reference range is adjusted to 22,000 - 26,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to buy copper and aluminum and short zinc in far - month contracts, and close the cross - period and cross - market arbitrage positions when domestic zinc ingot exports basically end. - Long - term: After overseas zinc smelters increase production smoothly and the US dollar index stabilizes, the cross - market long - arbitrage strategy can be re - entered [4]