宏观深度报告20260115：中国出口“惧怕”人民币升值吗

Group 1: Core Insights - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to raise concerns about its impact on China's exports in 2026, as higher prices could weaken competitive advantages[1] - Since 2018, the sensitivity of China's exports to exchange rate changes has decreased, with "technical barriers" becoming the main competitive strength over "price advantages" due to product upgrades[1] - The proportion of RMB settlements in international trade is gradually increasing, which is expected to further reduce the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on exports[1] Group 2: Historical Review - Historical data shows that during the RMB appreciation cycles from December 2016 to April 2018 and from May 2020 to March 2022, export growth remained stable, recovering from -6.3% to over 10% and from -3.5% to 13.4%, respectively[2] - Export recovery often precedes RMB appreciation by about one quarter, indicating that rising exports may contribute to RMB appreciation rather than the other way around[2] Group 3: Factors Reducing Impact of RMB Appreciation - The actual effective exchange rate of the RMB has decreased to approximately 88.6% as of November 2025, down 16.7% from its peak in March 2022, enhancing the price competitiveness of exports[2] - The RMB's purchasing power in international markets has increased due to appreciation, benefiting imports and reducing reliance on depreciation for export competitiveness[2] - The share of labor-intensive exports is declining, while the proportion of intermediate and capital goods exports is increasing, reflecting a shift towards more technology-intensive products[2] Group 4: Trade Settlement Trends - In 2024, RMB cross-border payments for goods trade reached approximately 12.4 trillion yuan, a 15.9% increase year-on-year, with RMB settlements accounting for 27.2% of total cross-border payments, up 2.4 percentage points from 2023[2] - The RMB settlement ratio is significantly increasing in trade with emerging markets, particularly in regions like ASEAN and Africa, where growth rates of 21.8% and 35.9% were recorded, respectively[2] Group 5: Risk Considerations - There are uncertainties regarding U.S. tariff policies, which could negatively impact exports if additional tariffs are imposed[2] - A potential downturn in the U.S. economy could adversely affect global demand, posing risks to China's export performance[2]