沥青日报：高开后震荡下行-20260115

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market opened higher and then oscillated downward. It is recommended to focus on the Venezuelan situation and adopt a reverse spread strategy. It is expected that domestic refineries will still have raw material inventories available before March [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Supply - Last week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 2.0 percentage points to 25.4% week - on - week, 1.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In January 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2 million tons, a decrease of 158,000 tons (7.3%) month - on - month and 276,000 tons (12.1%) year - on - year. The shipments decreased by 20.05% to 210,300 tons week - on - week, at a relatively low - to - neutral level. The refinery inventory rate increased week - on - week, still near the lowest level in recent years. The US military action in Venezuela may affect domestic asphalt production and cost. This week, the asphalt operating rate remains low [1]. - Demand - Last week, most of the downstream operating rates of asphalt declined. The road asphalt operating rate decreased by 3 percentage points to 17% week - on - week due to capital and weather constraints. The rigid demand in the north will further slow down, while the winter storage demand is continuously released. The overall demand in the south is average, and low - price goods are sold well [1]. - Price - The asphalt price in Shandong is stable, and the basis is at a relatively low - to - neutral level [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures - Today, the asphalt futures contract 2603 fell 0.06% to 3,167 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,155 yuan/ton, and the highest was 3,210 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 3,812 to 199,515 lots [2]. - Basis - The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3,100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 03 contract rose to - 67 yuan/ton, at a relatively low - to - neutral level [4]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply - Refineries such as Zhongyou Gaofu and Jinling Petrochemical stopped asphalt production. The asphalt operating rate decreased by 2.0 percentage points to 25.4% week - on - week, 1.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage point compared with that from January to October 2025 but was still negative. From January to November 2025, the fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry decreased by 4.7% year - on - year, and that in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year [5]. - Inventory - As of the week of January 9, the asphalt refinery inventory rate increased by 0.5 percentage points to 13.4% compared with the week of January 2, near the lowest level in recent years [5].