国投期货能源日报-20260115

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [2] - Fuel oil: ★★★, suggesting a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, showing a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [2] - Asphalt: ★★★, meaning a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [2] Core Viewpoints - The short-term upside potential of oil prices is limited unless conflicts materialize, and the supply surplus remains the main factor restricting the upside space of oil prices [3] - Geopolitical risks will continue to support the high-sulfur fuel oil market, and the high-sulfur cracking spread may remain strong, while the fundamentals of low-sulfur fuel oil continue to be weak [4] - The impact of the Iranian situation on crude oil is significantly stronger than that on asphalt, and the upward driving force of asphalt is limited after the cost increase has been priced in [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - EIA's latest weekly data shows a surprising increase in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories [3] - Oil prices rebounded under the influence of concerns about the U.S. attack on Iran but then plunged after Trump's statement, and the short-term upside space is limited [3] - In Q1 2026, the global crude oil supply-demand structure shows significant inventory pressure, and the supply surplus restricts the upside space of oil prices [3] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Overnight, fuel oil prices rose sharply due to the escalation of the Iranian situation, and the gains were partially reversed today [4] - Geopolitical risks continue to disrupt the market, and the export disruption of Iran and the slowdown of Russian shipments may tighten the Asian supply [4] - Geopolitical risk premiums are expected to support the high-sulfur fuel oil market, and the high-sulfur cracking spread may remain strong, while the fundamentals of low-sulfur fuel oil continue to be weak [4] Asphalt - The Iranian geopolitical situation has a stronger impact on crude oil than on asphalt, and the BU cracking spread has declined from its high [5] - Kpler data predicts that the arrivals in January will still be sufficient, and the upward driving force is limited after the cost increase has been priced in [5] - Attention should be paid to the arrivals of Venezuelan crude oil in the future [5]