软商品日报-20260115

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Pulp: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Sugar: ★★★, showing a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is not very operable [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆, indicating the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is not very operable [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★, representing a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Natural rubber: ☆☆☆, suggesting the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is not very operable [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★★★, showing a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Viewpoints - For all the commodities in the report (cotton, pulp, sugar, apple, timber, 20 - rubber, natural rubber, butadiene rubber), the current recommended operation is to stay on the sidelines due to various factors such as market uncertainties, demand - supply imbalances, and price fluctuations [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices declined today, with general spot trading and stable basis. As of December, national commercial cotton inventory was 578.47 million tons, up 110.11 million tons month - on - month and 9.96 million tons year - on - year. By January 8, the cumulative processed Xinjiang cotton was 696.9 million tons, up 63.3 million tons year - on - year. Xinjiang's cotton planting area reduction policy was implemented, with the reduction lower than expected. Spinning mills' raw material demand is resilient, but downstream orders are general. Zhengzhou cotton may continue to adjust, and it's advisable to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices fluctuated. Internationally, Brazil's mid - south production data in December was neutral. The current crushing season is ending, with seasonal declines in cane crushing and sugar production. Attention turns to next season's output forecast. Weather models suggest lower rainfall in Brazil's main producing areas in Q1. The sugar - alcohol ratio has dropped, and Brazil's sugar output in the 26/27 season is expected to decrease. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar prices fluctuated. Sales data was relatively positive, but sales volume decreased due to market bearish sentiment. Although Guangxi has a strong production increase expectation in the 25/26 season, the production progress is slow. If output doesn't increase later, the futures price may rise. It's recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - Futures prices are oscillating at a high level. In Gansu, merchants' purchasing enthusiasm is high, with good transactions. In Shaanxi, the mainstream price is stable. During the Spring Festival stocking period, merchants mainly package their own supplies for the market, with less purchase of farmers' apples. Some merchants are looking for high - quality apples, but the supply is limited. As of January 15, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 655.57 million tons, down 7% year - on - year, and the destocking volume was 18 million tons, up 9.9% year - on - year. The market trading logic has shifted to demand. Apples' poor quality and high purchase price may affect the destocking speed. It's advisable to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural rubber & Synthetic rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber RU, 20 - rubber NR, and butadiene rubber BR all declined. The domestic natural rubber spot price dropped, while the synthetic rubber spot price was stable. The overseas butadiene port price was stable, and Thailand's raw material market prices mostly rose. Globally, natural rubber supply is entering the reduction period, with China's production area fully stopped and Vietnam's gradually stopping. Last week, the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate increased, with some plants under maintenance. The upstream butadiene plant operating rate also rose. Last week, the domestic tire operating rate continued to decline, with the finished product inventory of Shandong tire enterprises decreasing for all - steel tires and increasing for semi - steel tires. This week, Qingdao's natural rubber total inventory increased to 56.82 million tons. Last week, China's butadiene social inventory increased to 1.51 million tons, and this week, the upstream butadiene port inventory increased to 4.46 million tons. Overall, demand is slowly recovering, natural rubber supply is decreasing, synthetic rubber supply is increasing, rubber inventory is rising, cost support is strong, and market sentiment is weak. It's recommended to wait and see [6] Pulp - Today, pulp futures prices declined. Pulp is limited by weak downstream demand, and its short - term fundamentals are average. The spot price of coniferous pulp is 5450 yuan/ton, and that of Russian coniferous pulp in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai is 5300 yuan/ton. The price of broad - leaved pulp is 4700 yuan/ton. As of January 15, 2026, the inventory of China's main pulp ports was 201.4 million tons, up 0.7 million tons from the previous period and 0.3% month - on - month. The price difference between coniferous and broad - leaved pulp is narrowing, providing some support for coniferous pulp. Overseas prices of both coniferous and broad - leaved pulp have increased. Paper mills purchase pulp for immediate needs, and the increase in base paper prices is relatively weak. It's recommended to wait and see [7] Logs - Futures prices are oscillating. The spot price in Taicang Port increased by 10 yuan to 750 yuan/cubic meter. Overseas prices decreased, and domestic spot prices are weak. The short - term arrival volume will decrease. As of January 9, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 national ports was 57,500 cubic meters, up 1.77% week - on - week. Demand has decreased seasonally but is still high year - on - year. As of January 9, the total national port log inventory was 2.69 million cubic meters, up 0.75% month - on - month. The national log inventory is relatively low, with less inventory pressure. Low inventory provides some support for prices. It's recommended to wait and see [8]