国投期货有色金属日报-20260115

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias with a driving force for an upward trend but limited operability on the market [1] - Zinc: ★★★, showing a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias with a driving force for an upward trend but limited operability on the market [1] - Lithium carbonate: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias with a driving force for an upward trend but limited operability on the market [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals, including price trends, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes, and provides corresponding investment suggestions for each metal [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - On Thursday, Shanghai copper decreased in price with reduced positions. The market digested Trump's attitude towards tariffs on key minerals, and the copper warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 13,378 tons to 162,717 tons. It is advisable to continue the previous strategy of selling call options at high positions [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum declined today. The spot premiums and discounts in East China, Central China, and Foshan decreased. The aluminum rod processing fee remained negative, and the social inventories of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased. The short - term fundamentals deviate, and speculation should be cautious. Aluminum plants can consider participating in selling hedging. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum, and the market activity is low. The domestic alumina production capacity remains around 95 million tons, and the market is in significant surplus. When the spread is low, short positions can be taken on rallies [3] Zinc - LME's decision not to accept the zinc brand warehouse receipt registrations of two South Korean enterprises since April 14, 2026 triggered a short - term bullish market. However, this news did not change the global zinc supply - demand relationship. There is a need to reduce volatility in the zinc market recently. Opportunities to sell call options with a strike price of 27,000 for the near - term contract can be considered, and short positions can be taken on rallies [4] Silver and Stainless Steel - Shanghai silver is strongly oscillating, and the stainless - steel market is active. The upstream prices are starting to rebound. The market is currently dominated by policy sentiment. In the short term, downstream buyers can continue to buy at low prices [7] Tin - Shanghai tin is oscillating at a high level with reduced positions. The warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased. Although there was a landslide accident in the Alphmin mining area, the market mainly trades on sentiment. High - volatility risks should be noted, and call options with high strike prices can be sold near expiration [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate dived and then rebounded during trading. The sales strategy of upstream lithium salt factories is changing. The overall demand is resilient. The market has seen its first week of inventory increase, but the downstream inventory is decreasing rapidly. The lithium carbonate futures price is strong, but short - term uncertainties are extremely high [9] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon opened low and closed high. The market has expectations for the technological transformation of 12,500 kva furnaces. The downstream demand is weak, and it is expected to maintain an oscillating trend [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon is oscillating around 48,000 yuan per ton, and funds are continuously flowing out. The trading logic has changed, and the market sentiment has cooled significantly. Participation should be cautious [11]