国投期货化工日报-20260115

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★★☆ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - Polypropylene: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Plastic: ★★☆ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Styrene: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - PTA: ★★☆ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★☆ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★☆ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Urea: ★★☆ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - PVC: ★★☆ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ (One red star, indicating a bullish bias but with limited operability on the market) [1] - Glass: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market trends of various chemical products, including supply and demand, inventory, and price movements, and provides investment ratings and suggestions based on these analyses [1][2][3][5][6][7][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated within the day. Supply was tight, inventory was controllable, and prices rose. Downstream demand was good, driving up the trading center [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures also fluctuated. For polyethylene, pre - sales during the Spring Festival continued, the overall transaction price increased, and the production load was stable. For polypropylene, the futures market was high, but there were concerns about downstream demand [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices fell with oil prices. Supply was abundant, and inventory at ports was high. In the short term, it would fluctuate due to geopolitical risks, and there were difficulties in de - stocking in the long term [3] - Styrene futures fluctuated slightly. Supply and demand were in a tight balance, inventory was decreasing, and the export market was good [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fell. The short - term upward drive for PX weakened, but the medium - term outlook was positive. PTA's price was mainly driven by raw materials, and the processing margin improved [5] - For ethylene glycol, domestic supply increased while overseas supply decreased. In the short term, it was affected by geopolitical factors. In the second quarter, supply and demand might improve, but it was under long - term pressure [5] - Short - fiber demand was weak, and the price followed the raw materials. Attention should be paid to downstream replenishment during the Spring Festival [5] - Bottle - chip production decreased, inventory decreased, and the price followed the raw materials. There was still capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices rose first and then fell. Overseas production was low, and port inventory was decreasing. However, demand from MTO plants was weakening, and the de - stocking speed was expected to slow down [6] - Urea prices were strong. Compound fertilizer production increased, and the market sentiment was positive. The price was expected to continue to be strong [6] Chlor - alkali Industry - PVC prices fluctuated. Production increased slightly, exports increased, but downstream demand was weak, and inventory increased. In 2026, capacity reduction was expected, and the price center might rise [7] - Caustic soda prices were weak. Inventory was increasing, and the industry was generally losing money. The profit of chlor - alkali integration was expected to be compressed [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices were weak. Production was increasing, supply pressure was high, and downstream demand was poor. It was recommended to short on rebounds [8] - Glass prices were weak. Inventory was decreasing, but production was losing money, and demand was insufficient. In the long term, supply would decrease, and there might be buying opportunities after a correction [8]