每日核心期货品种分析-20260115

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - As of the close on January 15, most domestic futures main contracts declined, with some metals and agricultural products rising, while some precious metals and chemical products falling; stock index futures and treasury bond futures showed mixed performances; different futures varieties have their own supply - demand situations, affected by factors such as production, consumption, policies, and geopolitical events, and their price trends are also different [5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market Overview - As of the close on January 15, domestic futures main contracts declined more than they rose. Shanghai tin rose over 8%, Shanghai nickel over 4%, stainless steel (SS) over 3%, eggs and Shanghai zinc over 2%; palladium and platinum fell over 4%, bottle chips, caustic soda, palm oil, PX, and soda ash fell over 2%, short - fibers and PTA fell over 1%. Stock index futures and treasury bond futures had mixed performances. In terms of capital flow, as of 15:41 on January 15, Shanghai zinc 2603, stainless steel 2603, and Shanghai lead 2603 had capital inflows, while CSI 1000 2603, Shanghai and Shenzhen 2603, and Shanghai gold 2602 had capital outflows [5][6] 3.2. Market Analysis 3.2.1. Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper opened high and went low, falling during the day. Supply - side: smelters rely on by - products for profit, refined copper production is expected to decline in January. Demand - side: terminal demand grows strongly, but copper products are cautious, and inventory accumulates significantly. The probability of a deep decline in the copper market is low [8] 3.2.2. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and went lower. In December 2025, production increased by 3.0% month - on - month, and weekly inventory decreased slightly. Demand for energy - storage batteries is strong, but policies such as export tax rebate adjustments and trading fees may affect the market. The demand increase from the export rush is expected to guide the market to be strong in the long - term [10] 3.2.3. Crude Oil - OPEC + will maintain the production plan in February and March 2026. US crude inventory accumulates, and the market is worried about demand. The supply is in an oversupply pattern, but geopolitical risks such as the situation in Iran and the Russia - Ukraine negotiation affect the price, and the price is expected to fluctuate [11][13] 3.2.4. Asphalt - Supply: the start - up rate decreased last week, and the expected output in January 2026 decreased. Demand: downstream start - up rates mostly declined, with rigid demand weakening and winter - storage demand releasing. The situation in Venezuela affects raw material supply, and it is recommended to focus on reverse arbitrage [14][16] 3.2.5. PP - As of the week of January 9, the downstream start - up rate decreased. The enterprise start - up rate was about 81%. The cost was affected by geopolitical events, with new production capacity put into operation. The downstream demand was limited, and the upward space was expected to be limited. The L - PP spread was expected to narrow [17] 3.2.6. Plastic - The start - up rate was about 86% on January 15. As of the week of January 9, the downstream start - up rate increased slightly, with new production capacity put into operation. The downstream demand was weakening, and the upward space was expected to be limited. The L - PP spread was expected to narrow [18][19] 3.2.7. PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price was stable, the supply - side start - up rate increased, and the downstream start - up rate was low. Exports were average, and inventory was high. Before the export tax rebate is cancelled in April 2026, there may be an export rush, and the 03 - 05 contracts are expected to fluctuate strongly [20] 3.2.8. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and went low, closing down. The supply of imported coal decreased, and domestic production increased. Mines de - stocked, while coking enterprises and steel mills increased inventory. The price is expected to be high and strong [22] 3.2.9. Urea - Urea opened high and went high, being strong during the day. The daily output increased, and the downstream demand improved. The inventory decreased. The upward pace slowed down, but it is expected to be strong in the medium - and long - term and adjust at a high level in the short - term [23][24]