PVC日报：震荡运行-20260115

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The PVC market is expected to show a relatively strong and volatile trend for the 03 - 05 contracts under the stimulation of the cancellation of export tax - rebates, despite facing challenges such as high inventory and weak downstream demand [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate increased by 1.04 percentage points to 79.67%, remaining at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream operating rate increased slightly but is still lower than before New Year's Day, and downstream product orders are poor. Export orders decreased compared to before New Year's Day, and the Indian market has limited demand. Social inventory continued to increase and remains high. The real estate market is still in the adjustment phase, and although the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities rebounded, it is still at the lowest level in recent years. The macro - environment is positive, but the comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali is under pressure [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2605 contract increased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 4,835 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,925 yuan/ton, and it closed at 4,868 yuan/ton, down 0.23% with an increase of 13,981 lots in open interest to 1,042,075 lots [2] Basis - On January 15, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4,580 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,888 yuan/ton. The basis was - 288 yuan/ton, weakening by 5 yuan/ton and at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Affected by plants such as Shaanxi Jintai and Ningbo Hanwha, the PVC operating rate increased by 1.04 percentage points to 79.67%. New production capacities, including Wanhua Chemical (500,000 tons/year), Tianjin Bohua (400,000 tons/year), Qingdao Gulf (200,000 tons/year), Gansu Yaowang (300,000 tons/year), have been put into production in the second half of the year, and Jiaxing Jiahua (300,000 tons/year) started trial production in December [4] - Demand: The real estate market is still in adjustment. From January to November 2025, national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The sales area of commercial housing was 787.02 million square meters, a decrease of 7.8%. The sales volume was 751.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.1%. New construction area decreased by 20.5%. The area of housing under construction decreased by 9.6%, and the completed area decreased by 18.0%. As of the week of January 11, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 48.65% week - on - week and is at the lowest level in recent years [5] - Inventory: As of the week of January 8, PVC social inventory increased by 3.48% week - on - week to 1.1141 million tons, 40.98% higher than the same period last year, and social inventory continued to increase and remains high [6]