ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2026-01-15 11:25Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [3] Core Insights - The gaming sector is expected to experience significant growth in 2026, driven by a mature product line, a persistent "lipstick effect" in consumer spending, and a peak in product cycles among major gaming companies [8][11] - The market size for the gaming sector is projected to reach approximately 357 billion yuan in 2026, with a quarterly growth rate expected to be in the high single digits [11] - The issuance of new game licenses has increased significantly, with a total of 1,771 licenses issued in 2025, marking a 25% increase from 2024 [9] - The domestic gaming market is anticipated to maintain strong consumer enthusiasm, supported by a moderate economic growth forecast of around 4.8% for GDP in 2026 [10] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The gaming sector is characterized by product line-driven growth, a noticeable lipstick effect, and the rise of A-share gaming companies [6] - Major titles such as "Endless Winter," "Supernatural Action Group," and "Delta Action" have catalyzed revenue growth in 2025 [6] Supply Side Analysis - In 2025, 1,729 mobile games received licenses, with 1,648 being domestic titles, indicating a 26.39% increase from 2024 [9] - The issuance of PC client game licenses also saw a rise, with 159 licenses granted, a 17.78% increase from the previous year [9] Consumer Behavior - The gaming sector is expected to benefit from a stable macroeconomic environment, with consumer spending likely to remain robust due to the lipstick effect [10] Market Size Forecast - The gaming market is projected to achieve a quarterly size of over 90 billion yuan in Q3 2026, contributing to an annual total of approximately 357 billion yuan [11] Company Valuation - The gaming sector is anticipated to reach a 20x P/E valuation by 2026, with current average valuations around 18x P/E [43] - Key companies to watch include Century Huatong, Giant Network, and Tencent Holdings, which have strong product lines and upcoming releases [43]