养殖产业链日报：震荡偏强-20260115

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "oscillating and moderately strong" [1] Core Viewpoints - Soybeans are expected to continue an oscillating and moderately strong trend; for corn, attention should be paid to opportunities to buy on dips; for eggs, try to buy at relatively low points and focus on later capacity reduction; for live pigs, it is recommended to mainly buy on dips for far - month contracts [1][2][4] Summary by Commodity Soybeans - Northeast产区soybean spot prices are at a high level, with a tight supply of high - protein soybeans. The price of 39% protein content commercial beans in some areas is around 2.2 yuan per catty. The 30,000 - ton domestic soybean two - way bidding transaction organized by Sinograin on Tuesday was fully completed. Market demand still has some support, but the price difference between domestic and imported soybeans on the futures market is over 800 yuan per ton, at a historically high level. If the price of domestic soybeans rises further, the demand for domestic soybeans for food or oil - pressing will be affected [1] Corn - As the spot price continues to rise, some trading entities have begun to accelerate grain sales. The number of trucks arriving at Jinzhou Port this morning reached 817, a month - on - month increase of 331. Due to factors such as logistics and transportation, the arrival of grain sources at northern ports will continue to increase. In Shandong, although the number of trucks arriving in the morning is less than 300, considering the low willingness of grass - roots farmers to sell grain and the lack of motivation for terminal enterprises to raise prices, the Huanghuaihai market centered on Shandong will gradually enter the peak grain - selling period [1] Eggs - Since July 2025, the sample chicken - chick replenishment volume (accounting for 50% of the actual replenishment) has been declining year - on - year, and the year - on - year decline in the second half of the year has been increasing month by month. The year - on - year declines in monthly chicken - chick sales from August to December were 9.4%, 14.1%, 12.7%, 13.4%, and 13.9% respectively. It is estimated that from January to May 2026, the number of newly - opened laying hens will remain at a low level. The low replenishment in the second half of 2025 will significantly reduce the pressure of newly - opened laying hens in the first half of 2026. The short - term upward space is suppressed by the loose spot market, but in the long - term, eggs are gradually getting out of the low - price situation [2] Live Pigs - In 2025, the actual total hog slaughter volume of domestic breeding enterprises showed a steady increase, reaching 155.79 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 18.38% compared with 131.6 million heads in 2024. The actual slaughter volume showed significant differences before and after festivals and seasonal characteristics. The current hog supply side is in the stage of capacity optimization and regional reconstruction. The appropriate reduction of the breeding sow inventory lays the foundation for medium - and long - term supply - demand balance. The market will still face short - term structural pressure, but in 2026, the hog supply pattern is expected to gradually re - balance. The significant acceleration of hog capacity reduction further confirms the upward price expectation for far - month contracts [3][4]