油粕日报：菜油利空兑现-20260115

Report Summary - Report Industry Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The near - month soybean meal is expected to fluctuate strongly, while the far - month contracts remain weak due to the bearish effect of the USDA report and may decline further if South American harvest progresses well. For oils, after the phased bearish factors are exhausted, it is recommended to buy on dips in the medium term [1][2] Group 1: Soybean Meal - On January 14, 2026, US private exporters reported selling 334,000 tons of US soybeans to China for 2025/26 delivery. Since October 30, USDA has confirmed 5.35 million tons of soybean sales to China. China's soybean imports in December 2025 were 8.044 million tons, and 8.107 million tons in November. The total import in 2025 was 111.833 million tons. Private exporters also reported selling 136,000 tons of corn to South Korea for 2025/26 delivery [1] - The market is unclear about the later reserve - release schedule. Recent imported soybean reserve releases were all sold at a premium, indicating a supply gap and strong short - term demand. Near - month soybean meal is expected to fluctuate strongly, and far - month contracts may decline further if South American harvest progresses well [1] Group 2: Oils - According to ITS data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 15, 2026 were 727,440 tons, an 18.64% increase compared to the same period last month. Malaysia set the reference price of crude palm oil for February 2026 at 3,846.84 ringgit per ton, with an export tariff rate of 9.0% [2] - On January 15, 2026, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Canadian Foreign Minister Anand. A dialogue between Chinese and Canadian leaders is expected to discuss Canadian rapeseed imports [2] - Uncertainty about Indonesia's B50 policy led to a slight decline in palm oil. Rapeseed oil fell significantly as the market awaited the China - Canada leaders' meeting. Palm oil also dropped but was supported by the improving export situation in Malaysia. It is recommended to buy on dips after the phased bearish factors are exhausted [2]