原油日报：原油高开后震荡下行-20260115

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The report anticipates that crude oil prices will fluctuate due to a supply - surplus situation, geopolitical risks in the Middle East, and uncertainties in global economic data [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 4, OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November 2025 and suspend production increases in February and March 2026. The next meeting is scheduled for February 1 [1] - During the off - peak season of crude oil demand, EIA data shows that US crude oil inventories have increased more than expected, and gasoline inventories have also risen significantly, leading to an overall increase in oil product inventories. US crude oil production has slightly decreased but remains near the historical high [1][3] - Trump has issued multiple warnings and policies, including threatening to increase tariffs on Indian products if India does not limit Russian oil purchases, and imposing a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran. The US has not ruled out military action against Iran, and the geopolitical risk in Iran remains [1] - The crack spread of refined oil products in Europe and the US is low, and the market is still worried about crude oil demand due to the decline in the US ISM manufacturing index [1] - The EIA's January monthly report has raised the degree of crude oil supply surplus in 2026 [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract 2603 fell 0.69% to 446.6 yuan/ton today, with a minimum price of 443.4 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 460.5 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 2948 to 39575 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - The IEA monthly report has raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by 0.79 dollars/barrel to 52.21 dollars/barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand forecast from 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production forecast from 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day [3] - EIA data on January 14 showed that US crude oil inventories for the week ending January 9 increased by 3.391 million barrels (expected to decrease by 1.702 million barrels), 1.88% higher than the five - year average. Gasoline inventories increased by 8.977 million barrels (expected to increase by 3.565 million barrels), and refined oil inventories decreased by 29,000 barrels (expected to increase by 512,000 barrels). Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 745,000 barrels [3] - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that OPEC's October crude oil production was adjusted down by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.481 million barrels per day. Its November 2025 production decreased by 1000 barrels per day month - on - month to 28.48 million barrels per day, mainly due to production cuts in Iraq and Iran. OPEC+ November crude oil production increased by 43,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 43.06 million barrels per day. US crude oil production for the week of January 9 decreased by 58,000 barrels per day to 13.753 million barrels per day, remaining near the historical high [3] US Crude Oil Product Supply - According to the latest data from the US Energy Agency, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products has increased to 19.98 million barrels per day, a 1.67% increase compared to the same period last year. Gasoline and diesel production have both increased month - on - month, driving a 9.27% month - on - month increase in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [4]