Group 1: Report Information - The report is a daily sugar report dated January 15, 2026, focusing on the sugar market [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - International sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term, and domestic sugar prices will have a range - bound movement. It is advisable to consider low - buying and high - selling within the range for domestic sugar. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see, and for options, selling put options is suggested [8][9] Group 4: Data Analysis Futures Market - SR09 closed at 5,291, down 13 (-0.25%), with a trading volume of 14,823 (down 14,574) and an open interest of 85,880 (up 746) - SR01 closed at 5,295, down 25 (-0.47%), with a trading volume of 1,151 (up 1,105) and an open interest of 6,786 (down 1,150) - SR05 closed at 5,280, down 19 (-0.36%), with a trading volume of 162,483 (down 66,399) and an open interest of 425,271 (down 3,694) [3] Spot Market - Sugar spot prices in Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, Nanning, Rizhao, and Xi'an were 5,505, 5,345, 5,810, 5,430, 5,700, and 5,960 respectively. The price in Kunming dropped by 25, and that in Xi'an dropped by 20 [3] Spread - SR05 - SR01 spread was - 15, SR09 - SR05 spread was 11, and SR09 - SR01 spread was - 4 [3] Import Profit - For Brazilian imports, the in - quota price was 3,945, the out - of - quota price was 5,009, the spread with Liuzhou was 496, the spread with Rizhao was 691, and the spread with the futures was 286. For Thai imports, the in - quota price was 3,995, the out - of - quota price was 5,074, the spread with Liuzhou was 431, the spread with Rizhao was 626, and the spread with the futures was 221 [3] Group 5: Market Research Important Information - In 2025, the actual arrival volume of raw sugar outside the tariff quota in China was 221.61 million tons, an increase of 128.23 million tons year - on - year, the second - highest in the past five years [5] - On January 15, the spot sugar prices in major producing areas were basically stable, and the overall trading volume was average [6] - Due to the continuous decline in sugar prices, it is expected that the beet planting area in the EU will decrease by about 7% - 8% this year, which may help the regional and global sugar prices rebound [7] Logical Analysis - Internationally, as Brazilian sugarcane is gradually entering the harvest stage, the supply pressure of Brazilian sugar will ease. Most of the sugar production in the Northern Hemisphere is in the production - increasing cycle. India's production may exceed expectations, which has a negative impact on international sugar prices. It is expected that the US sugar price will oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [8] - Domestically, the processing cost of white sugar is high, and the cost of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota is between 5,000 - 5,200 yuan/ton, which provides some support for sugar prices. However, due to the peak sugar - pressing season and the expected global sugar production increase in the 2025/2026 period, there is significant pressure on the upper - range oscillation platform of sugar prices. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short - term [8] Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: International sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term, and domestic sugar prices will have a range - bound movement. Consider low - buying and high - selling within the range [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Options: Sell put options [10] Group 6: Related Attachments - The report includes multiple charts related to sugar market data, such as monthly inventory, monthly production, spot prices, price spreads, and basis of sugar in different regions and periods [11][14][16]
白糖日报-20260115
Yin He Qi Huo·2026-01-15 11:20