熊猫债市场2025年回顾与2026年展望：熊猫债发行量维持高位，外资发行占比创六年新高

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the issuance scale of panda bonds exceeded 160 billion yuan, ranking second in history. Benefiting from factors such as the cost - advantage of domestic financing, continuous introduction of policy optimization, and the improvement of RMB internationalization, it is expected that panda bonds will remain popular in 2026, and the issuance volume may stay at a historically high level [1][34] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 Panda Bond Issuance Overview - Issuance Scale and Quantity: In 2025, 44 entities issued 114 panda bonds with a total scale of 163.66 billion yuan. The number of issuers remained the same as last year, the number of issuance periods increased by 4.5% year - on - year, and the scale decreased by 16.0% year - on - year but was still at a high historical level [3] - Reasons for High - level Issuance: Firstly, the domestic financing cost has an advantage, and the panda bond market is still attractive to overseas issuers. Although the interest rate spread has narrowed due to the continuous interest rate cuts by European and American central banks, the domestic financing cost is still low. Secondly, policies for optimizing panda bond systems were continuously introduced, providing institutional convenience. Thirdly, the internationalization of the RMB continued to improve, and the exchange rate strengthened, increasing the attractiveness of RMB assets [5][8][11] 3.2 Characteristics and New Trends of the 2025 Panda Bond Market - Low - interest Environment and Cost Reduction: The domestic market maintained a low - interest environment. The issuance of panda bonds was concentrated in the medium - and long - term, and the average issuance cost hit a new low. The issuance volume of panda bonds reached a peak from June to July, and there was a significant correlation between the monthly issuance scale and the domestic interest rate trend [13][14] - Optimized Issuer Structure: The issuer structure of panda bonds was more optimized. The proportion of panda bond issuers with foreign backgrounds reached a new high since 2019, and the sources of issuers were more diversified. The registration locations of issuers showed a decentralized trend [15] - Diversified Industry Distribution: The industry distribution of panda bond issuers was relatively diversified. Financial institutions ranked first in the issuance scale, and the scale of panda bonds issued by the daily consumption industry decreased significantly. There were new issuances of sovereign panda bonds [19][20] - Reduction in Rated Bond Quantity: The number of panda bonds issued with ratings decreased. The credit ratings of bonds were mainly concentrated in the AAA level, and the proportion of unrated panda bonds increased [21] - Change in Sustainable Development - themed Bonds: The issuance scale of sustainable development - themed panda bonds continued to decline. Green panda bonds accounted for the highest proportion, and product innovation was more active, with new science - and technology innovation panda bonds issued [24][25] 3.3 Outlook for the 2026 Panda Bond Market - Low Financing Cost: It is expected that the financing cost of panda bonds will remain low in 2026. The PBOC will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and the Fed's monetary policy may continue to be loose, but there are significant differences in the interest rate cut rhythm. The relative financing cost advantage of the RMB still exists, but the inversion of the Sino - US interest rate spread may continue to narrow [27][29] - Continuous Improvement of External Conditions: RMB internationalization is expected to continue to advance, and relevant panda bond regulations are expected to be continuously improved. The PBOC welcomes more overseas entities to issue panda bonds, which will provide a good external environment for the panda bond market [30][31] - High Refinancing Demand: In 2026, the panda bond market will face a peak of maturity and repayment. The high refinancing demand will support the issuance of panda bonds [32] - Diversified Expansion of Issuers: Driven by the Belt and Road Initiative and multilateral mechanisms, the panda bond market will see opportunities for the expansion of diversified issuers in 2026 [33] - Overall Forecast: In 2026, panda bonds are expected to remain popular, and the issuance volume may stay at a historically high level [34]