国投期货黑色金属日报-20260115

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread Steel: ☆☆☆, representing a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Hot - Rolled Steel: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Coking Coal: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★★☆, indicating a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting [1] - Silicon Iron: ★★★, representing a clearer upward trend and there is still a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The steel plate continued to fluctuate in a narrow range. The demand for thread steel increased slightly while production decreased, and the inventory accumulation slowed down. The demand for hot - rolled steel improved, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline. Steel mill profits were marginally repaired, blast furnaces were gradually restarted, and molten iron increased in the short - term. The overall domestic demand was still weak, but steel exports reached a new high in December. The supply - demand contradiction was not significant, and the market sentiment was cautious. The plate was expected to continue the range - bound pattern in the short term [2] - Iron Ore: The iron ore plate weakened. Global shipments decreased seasonally, the domestic arrival volume remained high in the short - term, and port inventory continued to increase. Terminal demand improved in the off - season, molten iron production increased from a low level, and steel mills' imported ore inventory increased but was still at a low level. The commodity market sentiment was volatile, and iron ore fundamentals were relatively loose. It was expected to fluctuate in the short term [3] - Coke: The price fluctuated during the day. Coke transaction prices rose sporadically, coking profits were average, and daily production increased slightly. Coke inventory hardly changed. The carbon element supply was abundant, downstream molten iron was likely to bottom out and rebound, and the demand for raw materials was at an off - season level. The coke plate was at a premium, and the price was likely to be strong in the short - term [4] - Coking Coal: The price fluctuated during the day. The Mongolian coal customs clearance was 1519 vehicles. Coking coal mine production decreased slightly, and mines resumed production well after New Year's Day. Spot auction transactions continued to improve, and the terminal inventory increased slightly. The total coking coal inventory increased significantly, and the production - end inventory increased greatly. The coking coal plate was at a premium to Mongolian coal, and the price was likely to be strong in the short - term [6] - Silicon Manganese: The price bottomed out and rebounded. Driven by the rebound of the plate, manganese ore spot prices increased. There were structural problems in manganese ore port inventory. Iron water production decreased seasonally, silicon manganese weekly production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly. It was recommended to buy on dips [7] - Silicon Iron: The price bottomed out and rebounded. Affected by relevant policy documents, the price was relatively strong. The market expected an increase in coal mine supply guarantee, and there were expectations of a decline in power costs and semi - coke prices. Iron water production rebounded to a high - level range, export demand decreased, and metal magnesium production increased. Silicon iron supply decreased significantly, and inventory decreased slightly. It was recommended to buy on dips [8] 3. Content Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Performance: The plate continued to fluctuate in a narrow range [2] - Supply and Demand: Thread steel demand increased slightly, production decreased, and inventory accumulation slowed down. Hot - rolled steel demand improved, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline. Steel mill profits were marginally repaired, and blast furnaces were gradually restarted [2] - Downstream and Export: Domestic demand was still weak, but steel exports reached a new high in December [2] - Outlook: The supply - demand contradiction was not significant, and the plate was expected to continue the range - bound pattern in the short term [2] Iron Ore - Supply: Global shipments decreased seasonally, the domestic arrival volume remained high in the short - term, and port inventory continued to increase [3] - Demand: Terminal demand improved in the off - season, molten iron production increased from a low level, and steel mills' imported ore inventory increased but was still at a low level [3] - Market Sentiment and Outlook: The commodity market sentiment was volatile, and iron ore fundamentals were relatively loose. It was expected to fluctuate in the short term [3] Coke - Price and Production: The price fluctuated, transaction prices rose sporadically, coking profits were average, and daily production increased slightly [4] - Inventory: Coke inventory hardly changed [4] - Supply - Demand and Outlook: The carbon element supply was abundant, downstream molten iron was likely to bottom out and rebound, and the demand for raw materials was at an off - season level. The coke plate was at a premium, and the price was likely to be strong in the short - term [4] Coking Coal - Supply and Customs Clearance: The Mongolian coal customs clearance was 1519 vehicles. Coking coal mine production decreased slightly, and mines resumed production well after New Year's Day [6] - Transaction and Inventory: Spot auction transactions continued to improve, and the terminal inventory increased slightly. The total coking coal inventory increased significantly, and the production - end inventory increased greatly [6] - Supply - Demand and Outlook: The carbon element supply was abundant, downstream molten iron was likely to bottom out and rebound, and the demand for raw materials was at an off - season level. The coking coal plate was at a premium to Mongolian coal, and the price was likely to be strong in the short - term [6] Silicon Manganese - Price and Raw Materials: The price bottomed out and rebounded. Driven by the rebound of the plate, manganese ore spot prices increased [7] - Inventory and Production: There were structural problems in manganese ore port inventory. Iron water production decreased seasonally, silicon manganese weekly production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly [7] - Recommendation: It was recommended to buy on dips [7] Silicon Iron - Price and Policy: The price bottomed out and rebounded. Affected by relevant policy documents, the price was relatively strong [8] - Cost Expectation: The market expected an increase in coal mine supply guarantee, and there were expectations of a decline in power costs and semi - coke prices [8] - Supply - Demand and Inventory: Iron water production rebounded to a high - level range, export demand decreased, and metal magnesium production increased. Silicon iron supply decreased significantly, and inventory decreased slightly [8] - Recommendation: It was recommended to buy on dips [8]