2026年牛市展望系列2：6年A股向上的五大微观动能

Core Conclusions - The report identifies five micro-drivers for the upward trend of A-shares in 2026: 1) Long-term logic and short-term breakthroughs resonate, accelerating the growth of new productive forces 2) Capital market reforms are advancing deeply under the new "National Nine Articles" 3) Policies for stable growth and anti-involution are working together to improve profitability 4) The trend of residents' risk appetite continues to warm, accelerating the influx of funds into the market 5) The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle continues, and the AI industry trend remains strong, supporting the risk appetite for A-shares [1][2][3][4] Group 1: New Productive Forces - The current macro background indicates that China is in a period of transition from old to new driving forces, with technological innovation leading the development of new productive forces, which is key to upgrading the industrial structure [1][12] - The concept of "new productive forces" was first proposed by President Xi in September 2023, emphasizing high-level technological self-reliance and innovation as a core strategy for industrial policy [12][14] - By 2026, new productive forces are expected to continue driving industrial transformation and upgrading, supported by policies, capital, and talent focusing on technological innovation [1][14] Group 2: Capital Market Reforms - The new "National Nine Articles" released in April 2024 focuses on establishing a sound regulatory system, cultivating long-term funds, and promoting financial services for the real economy, which will reshape the foundational systems and regulatory logic of the capital market [2][21] - The report anticipates that investment and financing reforms will deepen, enhancing the quality of listed companies and stabilizing investor confidence and expectations, thereby supporting a steady bull market for A-shares [2][22] - Policies will continue to strengthen delisting and dividend guidance, balancing financing needs with investor protection, and enhancing investor satisfaction [2][23] Group 3: Profit Improvement - The core driving force of the A-share market is expected to shift from valuation increases driven by confidence recovery and leveraged funds in 2025 to improvements in corporate profitability [3][30] - The report indicates that the A-share market is currently in the second phase of a bull market, with corporate profitability beginning to improve, supported by macro policies promoting mild recovery on the supply side [3][30] - It is projected that the overall net profit growth for A-shares in 2026 could reach 10%, as improvements in profitability gradually spread across various industries [3][30] Group 4: Influx of Resident Funds - Since 2025, the financing balance of A-shares has significantly increased, but signs of resident funds entering the market have not been prominent [3][35] - The report notes that there is a substantial amount of excess savings among residents, with a potential influx of over 50 trillion yuan into the market as risk appetite continues to warm [3][37] - The current asset allocation of residents shows a low allocation to equities, indicating significant room for growth in equity investments in the future [3][37] Group 5: Support for Market Risk Appetite - The report highlights that the current market sentiment is not overly heated, with the number of new accounts and the market's profit-making effect not yet reaching their peak [3][46] - The continuation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle and the ongoing upward trend in the AI industry are expected to support the risk appetite for A-shares [3][47] - The report suggests that the historical average duration of bull markets in A-shares is around 26 months, indicating that there is still considerable room for growth in the current bull market [3][46]