瑞达期货不锈钢产业日报-20260115

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - The stainless - steel futures price is expected to adjust strongly, with the price range between 14,200 - 15,000 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 14,415 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 490 yuan/ton; the 02 - 03 contract price difference is - 5 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 12,915 lots, a decrease of 4,552 lots; the main contract position is 145,444 lots [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity is 46,118 tons, a decrease of 413 tons [2] 现货市场 (Spot Market) - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 14,950 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 500 yuan/ton; the market price of 304 scrap stainless steel in Wuxi is 9,650 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of stainless steel is 145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel output is 22,100 metal tons, a decrease of 800 metal tons [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 12,840.49 tons, an increase of 2,900.84 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 895,400 tons, a decrease of 9,700 tons [2] - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 150,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,600 yuan/ton; the average price of 7 - 10% ferronickel nationwide is 1,030 yuan/nickel point, an increase of 20 yuan/nickel point [2] - China's monthly chromite output is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 产业情况 (Industry Situation) - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7617 million tons, a decrease of 38,300 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 540,500 tons, a decrease of 13,300 tons [2] - The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 下游情况 (Downstream Situation) - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 534,567,000 square meters, an increase of 43,953,100 square meters [2] - The monthly output of excavators is 33,600 units, an increase of 2,700 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 22,600 units, an increase of 700 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 9,000 units, unchanged [2] 行业消息 (Industry News) - In November in the US, retail sales unexpectedly strengthened with a month - on - month increase of 0.6%, significantly driven by automobile and holiday consumption; energy cost increases pushed the US PPI in November to rebound to 3% year - on - year, with the core PPI month - on - month lower than expected; US existing home sales in December were the strongest since 2023, far exceeding expectations, and house price growth was the weakest in two and a half years [2] - In 2026, Fed voter Kashkari supported Powell and advocated keeping interest rates unchanged in January; voter Paulson maintained a cautious stance; 2025 voter Goolsbee emphasized the importance of independence in combating inflation; Fed Governor Milan found a new reason for interest - rate cuts: the Trump administration's deregulation [2] - China's foreign trade accelerated its recovery in December. Exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year, and imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year. Steel exports reached a record high, rare - earth quotas increased by 32% year - on - year, and annual imports of soybeans, iron ore, and crude oil all broke records, while coal imports fell by the largest margin in a decade [2] 观点总结 (Viewpoint Summary) - On the raw material side, the Philippines is gradually entering the rainy season, and the nickel ore grade is decreasing. The raw material inventory of domestic ferronickel plants is tightening. Indonesia plans to significantly cut the RKAB quota next year. In the case of raw material supply contraction, ferronickel production will face pressure to reduce output [2] - On the supply side, the production profit of stainless - steel plants has improved. Although it has bid farewell to the traditional peak demand season, the expected decline in production is actually limited, and supply pressure still exists [2] - On the demand side, downstream demand is gradually turning to the off - season, and the stainless - steel export volume is showing a downward trend. The impact of previous export squeezes is starting to be felt. Market procurement willingness is low, and overall inquiries and transactions are average. However, there is also not much inventory in the market, so the national social inventory of stainless steel maintains a seasonal slight decline [2]