瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20260115

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The inventory of domestic urea enterprises decreased this week, but as the urea price rises, the downstream trend of chasing up the price may slow down, and the short - term de - stocking range of urea enterprises is expected to be limited. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1770 - 1830 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 1801 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan; the 5 - 9 price difference was 29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan [2] - The position volume of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 250303 lots, a decrease of 3453 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 19065, an increase of 2022 [2] - The number of Zhengzhou urea exchange warehouse receipts was 13355, with no change [2] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui were 1740, 1750, 1760, 1760, and 1760 yuan/ton respectively. The prices in Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui increased by 10, 10, 20, and 10 yuan respectively, while the price in Hebei remained unchanged [2] - The FOB price in the Baltic Sea was 367.5 US dollars/ton, and the FOB price at the main Chinese port was 402.5 US dollars/ton, both with no change [2] - The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was - 41 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory was 140,000 tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons; the enterprise inventory was 986,100 tons, a decrease of 36,100 tons [2] - The urea enterprise operating rate was 83.22%, an increase of 2.93 percentage points; the daily urea output was 195,900 tons, an increase of 1700 tons [2] - The urea export volume was 600,000 tons, a decrease of 600,000 tons; the monthly output of urea was 6,000,330 tons, an increase of 129,060 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate was 37.17%, an increase of 3.28 percentage points; the melamine operating rate was 54.35%, an increase of 6.7 percentage points [2] - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China was 244 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea was - 152 yuan/ton, a decrease of 106 yuan [2] - The monthly output of compound fertilizer was 4.3825 million tons, an increase of 753,800 tons; the weekly output of melamine was 28,300 tons, a decrease of 1900 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of January 14, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 986,100 tons, a decrease of 36,100 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53%. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises decreased slightly this cycle [2] - As of January 15, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 134,000 tons, a decrease of 6000 tons month - on - month, a decline of 4.29%. The overall port goods fluctuated little this week, with both departure and collection of goods [2] - As of January 15, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.4051 million tons, an increase of 33,500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.44%; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese urea production enterprises was 85.25%, an increase of 2.03 percentage points from the previous period, and the trend continued to rise [2]