瑞达期货棉花（纱）产业日报-20260115

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were relatively stable, with the annual export value of $293.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%, better than expected. The ICE cotton futures were generally stable on Wednesday. In the domestic market, the national cotton inspection is accelerating, and the market supply is relatively sufficient. With the quota issuance, port pick - up increases, Brazilian cotton arrives in a concentrated manner, and inventory continues to rise. Downstream textile enterprises have limited orders, lower than previous years, and some weaving factories may have early holidays. The expected decline in cotton planting area in the new year supports the cotton market to some extent, but recently, the external macro - environment has weakened, and cotton prices have adjusted accordingly [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price: 14,675 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan; cotton futures top 20 net positions: - 174,613 lots, up 2,644 lots; main contract open interest of cotton: 835,832 lots, down 6,537 lots; cotton warehouse receipts: 9,329 lots, up 493 lots; China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B): 15,972 yuan/ton. - Cotton yarn main contract closing price: 20,665 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions: - 1,721 lots, up 1 lot; main contract open interest of cotton yarn: 15,580 lots, down 176 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipts: 70 lots, unchanged; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32S): 21,300 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:1% tariff): 12,634 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32S): 21,010 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty): 13,754 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32S): 22,418 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area: 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output: 6.16 million tons, up 540,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference: 5,328 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; national industrial inventory of cotton: 850,000 tons, up 65,000 tons; cotton import volume: 120,000 tons, up 30,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume: 150,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; imported cotton profit: 2,218 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; national commercial inventory of cotton: 4.6836 million tons, up 1.753 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days: 26.33 days, up 0.21 days; grey fabric inventory days: 32.34 days, up 0.37 days; monthly cloth output: 2.81 billion meters, up 0.19 billion meters; monthly yarn output: 2.039 million tons, up 38,000 tons; monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories: $115,936,860, up $5,902,055.7; monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products: $122,757,331,017,314.08 [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money cotton call options: 14.08%, up 0.96%; implied volatility of at - the - money cotton put options: 14.08%, up 0.96%; 20 - day historical volatility of cotton: 13.24%, down 0.25%; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton: 8.8%, down 0.18% [2]