瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20260115

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2350 in the short term. Although the port methanol inventory has decreased, the total volume remains at a relatively high level. Short - term attention should be paid to the unloading speed of foreign vessels and changes in提货量. The domestic methanol - to - olefins industry's operating rate continued to decline this week, and the average weekly operating rate is expected to drop next week [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2273 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of methanol was 1 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest was 829,376 lots, an increase of 5,592 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 170,691 lots, a decrease of 24,096 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 8,355, an increase of 700 [3] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2235 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 1845 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 410 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 38 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. CFR China Main Port was 268 US dollars/ton, unchanged; CFR Southeast Asia was 322 US dollars/ton, unchanged. FOB Rotterdam was 260 euros/ton, unchanged; the price difference between China Main Port and Southeast Asia was - 54 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.11 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.27 US dollars/million British thermal units [3] Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports was 103.89 tons, a decrease of 8.44 tons; the inventory in South China ports was 39.64 tons, a decrease of 1.75 tons. The import profit of methanol was - 22.17 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 141.76 tons, a decrease of 19.5 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises was 450,900 tons, an increase of 3,200 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises was 91.42%, an increase of 1.11 percentage points [3] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 34.07%, a decrease of 4.17 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 2.96%, a decrease of 0.64 percentage points. The operating rate of acetic acid was 76.99%, a decrease of 3.31 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE was 67.57%, a decrease of 0.44 percentage points. The operating rate of olefins was 88.06%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points; the disk profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 1027 yuan/ton, an increase of 47 yuan/ton [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 20.16%, an increase of 0.33 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol was 18.12%, an increase of 0.11 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 27.55%, an increase of 2.41 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol was 27.56%, an increase of 2.42 percentage points [3] Industry News - As of January 14, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 45.09 tons, a slight increase of 0.32 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.71%; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises were 23.78 tons, a slight increase of 0.03 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%. As of January 14, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 143.53 tons, a decrease of 10.19 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China and South China decreased. The significant reduction in port inventory was mainly due to the small total unloading volume. Recently, the loss of production capacity due to maintenance and production reduction of domestic methanol was more than the output of restored production capacity, resulting in a decrease in overall output. As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 86.93%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.38%. The Zhejiang Xingxing MTO plant entered a shutdown state, and some enterprises were still operating at reduced loads, causing the industry's operating rate to continue to decline passively [3]