Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-01-15 11:53Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - The rapeseed meal market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, generally fluctuating with soybean meal. Affected by the bearish USDA report and the rising expectation of eased China - Canada trade relations, rapeseed meal continued to decline and maintained a weak oscillation [2]. - The rapeseed oil market is also in a weak oscillation recently. Although the current de - stocking mode supports the price and the basis remains high, the increasing long - term supply pressure due to the arrival of Australian rapeseeds and the expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations needs attention [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) was 8828 yuan/ton, down 121 yuan; rapeseed meal (active contract) was 2283 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active) was 629.4 Canadian dollars/ton, down 2.3 Canadian dollars; rapeseed (active contract) was 5550 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. - Spreads: Rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (5 - 9) was 14 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (5 - 9) was - 68 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. - Positions: Main contract positions of rapeseed oil were 258828 lots, up 12208 lots; main contract positions of rapeseed meal were 869905 lots, down 1046 lots. Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil were - 20583 lots, up 650 lots; for rapeseed meal were - 201431 lots, down 19790 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: Rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 2142 sheets, down 80 sheets; rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were 84 sheets, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9600 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2350 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5900 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8490 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 8650 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Averages and spreads: The average price of rapeseed oil was 9706.25 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed was 7540.97 yuan/ton, down 45.57 yuan. The oil - meal ratio was 3.95, down 0.03. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 772 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract was 67 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1110 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 770 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Production and imports: Global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 95.27 million tons, up 3 million tons; rapeseed production annual forecast was 13446 thousand tons, unchanged. Rapeseed import volume was 0.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons; imports of rapeseed oil and mustard oil were 14 million tons, down 2 million tons; imports of rapeseed meal were 22.06 million tons, up 6.29 million tons [2]. - Inventory and开机 rate: Total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 0.1 million tons, unchanged; the weekly开机 rate of imported rapeseed was 0%, unchanged [2]. - Pressing profit: The imported rapeseed disk pressing profit was 365 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - Inventory: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 0.2 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 0 million tons, unchanged. East China rapeseed oil inventory was 25.15 million tons, down 1.55 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory was 15.7 million tons, down 1 million tons. Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 0.1 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory was 25.7 million tons, up 1.1 million tons [2]. -提货量: Rapeseed oil weekly提货量 was 0.18 million tons, down 0.22 million tons; rapeseed meal weekly提货量 was 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - Production: Feed production for the month was 2977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons; edible vegetable oil production for the month was 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons [2]. - Consumption: Social consumer goods retail sales of catering revenue for the month were 6057 billion yuan, up 858 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - Implied volatility: The at - the - money call option implied volatility of rapeseed meal was 22.73%, down 0.45%; the at - the - money put option implied volatility of rapeseed meal was 22.73%, down 0.45%. The at - the - money call option implied volatility of rapeseed oil decreased by 0.15% [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 16.67%, down 0.39%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 12.82%, down 0.06%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 17.08%, down 0.73%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 17.1%, down 0.05% [2]. Industry News - On January 14th, ICE rapeseed futures declined, in line with the trend of Chicago soybean oil. The ICE March rapeseed futures contract fell 4.50 Canadian dollars, settling at 628.30 Canadian dollars per ton. The rapeseed trade is closely watching the news related to Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China [2]. Rapeseed Meal View Summary - The USDA monthly supply - demand report was bearish for soybeans, dragging down rapeseed meal. Domestically, the supply of near - month Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal is restricted, and oil mills are shut down, but the arrival of Australian rapeseed increases marginal supply. The market expects an improvement in China - Canada trade relations, increasing long - term supply pressure. The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand and fluctuates with soybean meal, maintaining a weak oscillation [2]. Rapeseed Oil View Summary - The USDA supply - demand report shows a relatively loose supply - demand pattern for global and Canadian rapeseed, which restricts the market price. The visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China raises the expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations, which may support the Canadian rapeseed market. Domestically, oil mills are shut down, and rapeseed oil is in a de - stocking mode, supporting the price, but the long - term supply pressure increases [3].