Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-01-15 11:53Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc ore imports are at a high level, but domestic zinc mines reduce production at the end of the year. Domestic smelters face increased competition in purchasing domestic ores, and both domestic and foreign processing fees have significantly declined. Domestic smelter profits are shrinking, and production is expected to continue to be restricted. However, the recent decline in LME zinc prices and the rebound of the SHFE-LME ratio may lead to the re - closure of the export window. [3] - On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off - season. The real estate sector is a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are also weakening. The policy support in the automotive and other fields brings some bright spots. Downstream markets mainly purchase on demand at low prices. The recent rapid increase in zinc prices has led to weak downstream purchasing, a decline in spot premiums, a slight decrease in domestic inventories, stable LME zinc inventories, and low spot premiums. [3] - Technically, with increasing trading volume and open interest, prices are rising, showing a strong bullish sentiment and breaking through the upper edge of the upward channel. It is expected that SHFE zinc will have a strong adjustment. Pay attention to the support of MA10, with the range of 24,500 - 25,500 yuan/ton. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE zinc main contract is 25,090 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 615 yuan/ton. The price difference between the 02 - 03 contracts of SHFE zinc is - 45 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5 yuan/ton. [3] - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,276 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 74.5 US dollars/ton. The total open interest of SHFE zinc is 260,851 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 27,188 lots. [3] - The net open interest of the top 20 in SHFE zinc is 4,378 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 734 lots. The SHFE zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons. [3] - The SHFE inventory is 73,852 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 4,059 tons. The LME inventory is 106,725 tons, with a day - on - day decrease of 175 tons. [3] 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 25,410 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 840 yuan/ton. The spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 26,230 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,460 yuan/ton. [3] - The basis of the ZN main contract is 320 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 225 yuan/ton. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 14.32 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5.03 US dollars/ton. [3] - The ex - works price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 21,470 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 220 yuan/ton. The price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,900 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 300 yuan/ton. [3] Upstream Situation - According to WBMS, the monthly zinc supply - demand balance is - 35,700 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 14,700 tons. According to ILZSG, the monthly zinc supply - demand balance is 20,300 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 27,600 tons. [3] - The global zinc mine output in the current month (monthly) is 1,066,600 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 31,000 tons. The domestic refined zinc output is 665,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons. [3] - The zinc ore import volume is 340,900 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 164,500 tons. [3] Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 18,836.76 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 3,840.75 tons. The refined zinc export volume is 8,518.67 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6,040.84 tons. [3] - The social zinc inventory is 111,700 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,600 tons. [3] Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets in the current month is 2.34 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons. The sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.42 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 140,000 tons. [3] - The newly started housing area is 534.567 million square meters, with a month - on - month increase of 43.9531 million square meters. The completed housing area is 348.61 million square meters, with a month - on - month increase of 37.3212 million square meters. [3] - The automobile production is 3.519 million vehicles, with a month - on - month increase of 240,000 vehicles. The air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.8908 million units. [3] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 28.68%, with a month - on - month increase of 5.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 28.67%, with a month - on - month increase of 5 percentage points. [3] - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 21.26%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.79 percentage points. The 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 12.62%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.06 percentage points. [3] Industry News - In the US, retail sales in November unexpectedly strengthened, with a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. The growth was significantly driven by automobile and holiday consumption. Rising energy costs pushed the US PPI in November to rebound to 3% year - on - year, and the core PPI was lower than expected month - on - month. Existing home sales in December reached the strongest level since 2023, far exceeding expectations, and the housing price increase was the weakest in two and a half years. [3] - In 2026, Fed voter Kashkari supported Powell and advocated keeping interest rates unchanged in January. Voter Paulson maintained a cautious stance. In 2025, voter Goolsbee emphasized the importance of independence in combating inflation. Fed Governor Milan found a new reason for interest rate cuts: the deregulation of the Trump administration. [3] - China's foreign trade has accelerated its recovery. In December, exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year, and imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year. Steel exports reached a new high, and rare earth exports increased by 32% year - on - year. The annual imports of soybeans, iron ore, and crude oil all broke records, while the decline in coal imports was the largest in a decade. [3]