瑞达期货沪锡产业日报-20260115

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai Tin will undergo short - term high - level adjustments. Attention should be paid to the support at MA5 and the resistance between 430,000 - 440,000 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 433,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 19,830 yuan/ton; the closing price of the February - March contract of Shanghai Tin is - 700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 180 yuan/ton [3] - LME 3 - month tin is 53,462 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3,934 US dollars/ton; the position of the main contract of Shanghai Tin is 38,434 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 3,968 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 futures in Shanghai Tin is - 2,306 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 3,850 lots; LME tin total inventory is 5,930 tons, with no change [3] - The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 6,935 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,001 tons; LME tin cancelled warrants are 135 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 10 tons [3] - The warehouse receipts of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 9,526 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2,419 tons [3] 3.2. Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 426,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 20,500 yuan/ton; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 435,640 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 25,030 yuan/ton [3] - The basis of the main contract of Shanghai Tin is - 7,670 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 8,540 yuan/ton; LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 105.98 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 40.7 US dollars/ton [3] 3.3. Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore concentrates is 11,600 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2,900 tons; the average price of 40% tin concentrates is 393,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 36,950 yuan/ton [3] - The average price of 60% tin concentrates is 397,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 36,950 yuan/ton; the average processing fee of 40% tin concentrates is 11,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 500 yuan/ton [3] - The average processing fee of 60% tin concentrates is 7,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 500 yuan/ton [3] 3.4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 518.38 tons [3] 3.5. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 269,460 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 12,610 yuan/ton; the cumulative output of tinplate is 1.3901 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 144,700 tons [3] - The monthly export volume of tinplate is 222,600 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 25,000 tons [3] 3.6. Industry News - In the US, retail sales in November unexpectedly strengthened with a month - on - month increase of 0.6%, significantly driven by automobile and holiday consumption. Energy cost increases pushed the US PPI in November back to a year - on - year increase of 3%, and the core PPI month - on - month increase was lower than expected. US existing home sales in December were the strongest since 2023, far exceeding expectations, and the housing price increase was the weakest in two and a half years [3] - Some Federal Reserve officials have different stances on interest rates. Kashkari supports Powell and advocates keeping interest rates unchanged in January, Paulson maintains a cautious stance, Goolsbee emphasizes the importance of independence in combating inflation, and Fed Governor Milan finds a new reason for interest rate cuts [3] - China's foreign trade is accelerating its recovery. In December, exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year, and imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year. Steel exports reached a new high, and rare earth exports increased year - on - year. The annual imports of soybeans, iron ore, and crude oil all broke records, and the decline in coal imports was the largest in a decade [3] 3.7. Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, the domestic supply of imported tin ore is still relatively tight, and the tin ore processing fee remains at a low level. The resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply of tin ore, but the supply in other regions is still highly unstable, and the overall import volume of tin ore is still at a low level. At the smelting end, the current tin ore raw materials are in short supply, the raw material inventory of most enterprises is still low, and most enterprises are in a loss situation. It is expected that the production of refined tin will continue to be restricted and there will still be no year - on - year increase. In terms of imports, Indonesia's export volume increased significantly in November, alleviating concerns about supply restrictions in Indonesia. Recently, the import window is approaching, increasing import pressure [3] - On the demand side, the tin price has risen recently, the downstream procurement demand has weakened again, the inventory has increased, and the spot premium is 500 yuan/ton. The LME inventory has increased significantly, and the spot premium has decreased [3] 3.8. Technical Analysis - The position has decreased while the price has increased, with a strong long - position atmosphere, and there may be an adjustment [3]