Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-01-15 11:53Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - It is expected that Shanghai nickel will undergo a strong short - term adjustment, and attention should be paid to the support of MA10 [3][4] - The Philippines has entered the rainy season, leading to a downward trend in nickel ore imports. Indonesia's plan to significantly cut the RKAB quota next year has raised market concerns about raw material supply shortages, but the long - term impact depends on the transmission process [3] - On the smelting side, Indonesia's nickel iron production remains high, and the quantity flowing back to China is expected to increase. China has large refined nickel production capacity, and with the recent rebound in nickel prices and improved profits, the production of refined nickel is expected to rise again [3] - On the demand side, the cost of nickel iron for stainless steel has decreased, improving steel mill profits and leading to expected high production. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, contributing a small increase in demand for ternary batteries [3] Group 3: Summary according to the Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 146,750 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5,810 yuan/ton. The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 18,785 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1,185 dollars/ton [3] - The 02 - 03 month contract spread of Shanghai nickel is - 270 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 70 yuan/ton. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 72,182 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,730 lots [3] - The main contract position of Shanghai nickel is 101,498 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 8,357 lots. LME nickel inventory is 284,658 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 510 tons [3] - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 46,650 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1,106 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 13,296 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 702 tons [3] - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 41,972 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1,700 tons [3] 2. Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 150,050 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3,600 yuan/ton. The average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 149,950 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3,300 yuan/ton [3] - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change. The bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change [3] - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 33,250 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 500 yuan/ton. The basis of the NI main contract is 3,300 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,210 yuan/ton [3] - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 198.76 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.11 dollars/ton [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 333.95 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 134.33 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,319.77 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 12.26 million tons [3] - The average monthly import price of nickel ore is 72.18 dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 14.84 dollars/ton. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, with no week - on - week change [3] 4. Industry Situation - The monthly production of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly production of nickel iron is 2.21 million metal tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 million metal tons [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 12,840.49 tons, with an increase of 2,900.84 tons. The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 176.17 million tons, with a decrease of 3.83 million tons [3] - The weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 89.54 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.97 million tons. The weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel in stock is 54.05 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.33 million tons [3] 6. Industry News - In the US, retail sales in November unexpectedly strengthened, with a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. Energy cost increases pushed the US PPI in November to rebound to 3% year - on - year, and the core PPI month - on - month was lower than expected. US existing home sales in December were the strongest since 2023, far exceeding expectations, and the housing price increase was the weakest in two and a half years [3] - Some Fed officials in 2026 support maintaining the interest rate in January, while others hold a cautious stance. A Fed governor has found a new reason for interest rate cuts [3] - China's foreign trade has accelerated its recovery. In December, exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year, and imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year. Steel exports reached a new high, and rare earth exports increased by 32% year - on - year. Annual imports of soybeans, iron ore, and crude oil all broke records, while coal imports had the largest decline in a decade [3]