地缘情绪反转降温，仍是短期主要驱动

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical sentiment towards Iran has reversed and cooled down, which remains the main short - term driver. Geopolitical premium is a short - term disturbance, and the mid - term strategy for oil is to go short after the geopolitical sentiment subsides [1][3]. - Chemical products are also affected by geopolitical sentiment in the short term and will continue to show a differentiated trend [1]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - Logic: EIA crude oil and refined oil inventories increased, indicating market oversupply. However, the market is more focused on the geopolitical risk in Iran. Geopolitical uncertainty is high, and the worst - case scenario is based on the small - scale air strike in June last year and Iran's limited retaliation. Geopolitical premium is a short - term factor, and the mid - term strategy is to go short [1][2][3]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level short - term upward structure may end. Today, it fell after reducing positions at a high level, breaking below the short - term support at 447. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities after a rebound in the hourly cycle [3]. Asphalt - Logic: The downstream terminal demand is in the off - season. The market is mainly concerned about the future flow of Venezuelan Merey crude oil. Currently, Venezuelan crude oil exports have basically stopped, but if exports resume, the previous upward logic of asphalt due to raw material shortage will be broken [5]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day, maintaining a small - cycle oscillation range of 15 minutes. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [5]. Styrene - Logic: The weekly operating rate of styrene is 70.92%, slightly increasing month - on - month and at a low level year - on - year. Both supply and demand are weak. However, since December, export inquiries and actual transactions have increased, and port inventories have decreased significantly. The continuous inventory reduction and commodity sentiment have led to a short - term strong performance. But there are concerns about the sustainability of the raw material strength after the Iranian unrest subsides [8]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it rose and then fell. The short - term support is at 6990 (02 contract). The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle and look for short - selling opportunities after a rebound if it breaks below the support [8]. Rubber - Logic: The terminal tire inventory is high, and the inventory in Qingdao continues to increase and is higher year - on - year. There is no disturbance on the supply side for now. This upward trend is passively following the synthetic rubber. With the weakening of downstream tire operating rates, the upward space is limited [11]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term oscillation structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it increased positions and then fell to test the support below. The short - term support is at 15800. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [11]. Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The supply remains high, but the downstream's phased restocking has led to inventory reduction of synthetic rubber and its raw material butadiene. The strengthening of butadiene has driven the upward movement of synthetic rubber from the cost side. However, the spot trading of butadiene weakened over the weekend, and the tire operating rate weakened again, limiting the upward space [15]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it rose and then fell. The short - term support is at 11800. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [15]. PX - Logic: The fundamentals of PX - PTA are strong both in reality and in expectation. In December, capital inflows led to a sharp price increase. However, downstream polyester has a low acceptance of high prices during the off - season, and some large polyester filament manufacturers have started to reduce production. It is facing a short - term callback due to negative feedback. In the mid - term, there is an opportunity for a second low - buying due to the expected supply shortage in the first half of the year [19]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillation structure on the verge of breaking. Today, it fell sharply, breaking below the lower limit of the range at 7120. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [19]. PTA - Logic: Similar to PX, the fundamentals of PX - PTA are strong, but downstream polyester's low acceptance of high prices during the off - season and production cuts by some manufacturers lead to a short - term callback. In the mid - term, there is an opportunity for a second low - buying due to the expected supply shortage in the first half of the year [23]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillation structure. Today, it tested the lower limit of the oscillation range at 5010. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [23]. PP - Logic: The fundamentals of the olefin industry chain where PP - plastic belongs are still weak. With new capacity release pressure and the off - season of demand, the supply - demand drive is weak. It lacks a one - sided long - buying drive and is recommended to be used in the hedging strategy of going long on aromatics (PX, PTA) and going short on olefins (PP, plastic) [25][27][39]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it rose and then fell. The short - term support is at 6430. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [27]. Methanol - Logic: Domestic supply remains high, and the expected reduction in imports in January has been priced in. Downstream traditional demand is expected to decrease before the Spring Festival, and MTO demand is expected to decline due to compressed profits. Both port and inland inventories are high, and the port inventory is 154 million tons, 80% higher year - on - year. If the inventory reduction rate in January is slow, there will be pressure. Also, the appreciation of the RMB has lowered the import cost. As the Iranian unrest subsides, the geopolitical premium will be reversed [29]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure and a short - term upward structure. Today, it rose and then fell. The short - term support is at 2200. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle after closing out short positions in the 15 - minute cycle [29]. PVC - Logic: PVC still has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. However, Shaanxi's planned differential electricity price may lead to a reduction in calcium carbide production. The cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate for PVC from April 1, 2026, brings short - term positive and long - term negative drivers, with an expected short - term domestic inventory reduction due to pre - export rush [32]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day, and the short - term support is at 4725. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [32]. Ethylene Glycol - Logic: Terminal demand is in the traditional off - season, and there is a concern about a decline in polyester operating rates. On the supply side, coal - based production has recovered, domestic weekly production remains high, and new capacity is expected to be put into operation. Port inventories are still increasing, and the fundamentals do not provide a driving force for a sharp reversal [35]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level structure is not clear. Today, it increased positions and broke through, and the hourly structure may start to decline. The short - term pressure is at 3900. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound ends in the hourly cycle [35]. Plastic - Logic: Similar to PP, the fundamentals of the olefin industry chain are weak, lacking a one - sided long - buying drive. It is recommended to be used in the hedging strategy of going long on aromatics (PX, PTA) and going short on olefins (PP, plastic) [39]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. Today, it rose and then fell. The short - term support is at 6670. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [40]. Soda Ash - Logic: The oversupply pattern of soda ash remains unchanged, and there is no expected increase in terminal demand. After the supply - side maintenance resumed, the operating rate increased, and the previous support from inventory reduction is no longer there. There is no driving force for a sharp reversal [41]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it increased positions and had a long - negative candlestick, confirming the short - term downward trend. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle. If entering the market in the morning, the stop - loss reference is 1215 (15 - minute K - line closing price) [41]. Caustic Soda - Logic: Caustic soda still has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The supply - demand drive is downward, and there is no sign of a reversal [42]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it increased positions and reached a new low. The short - term pressure is at 2125. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [42].