碳酸锂、多晶硅、工业硅日报-20260115

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View The report analyzes the market trends, core logics, technical aspects, and provides strategy suggestions for three commodities: lithium carbonate, polysilicon, and industrial silicon futures. It also lists the subsequent focus points for each commodity. 3. Summary by Commodity Lithium Carbonate - Market Trend: The lithium carbonate futures fluctuated. The main 2605 contract rose 0.79% from the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 163,220 yuan/ton [1]. - Core Logic: After the exchange's regulatory intervention on the 13th, market sentiment cooled. The sharp rise at the beginning of the week was due to the export tax - rebate policy, which might prompt battery companies to stock up, and the booming domestic energy - storage project bidding. However, the continuous decline in positions may lead to a risk of concentrated profit - taking by long positions [1]. - Technical Analysis: It is still controlled by long positions. The 5 - minute and overnight 2 - hour cycles show certain trends, with the long - short dividing line at 143,420 yuan/ton. The continuous decline in positions requires caution [2]. - Strategy Suggestion: In the context of "strong reality and strong expectation", the operation should be mainly to go long on dips. Avoid chasing highs directly and find good entry points according to certain methods. Listen to the 8:30 morning live - broadcast for specific operations [2][3]. - Follow - up Focus: The actual progress of battery exports in the first quarter, the recovery of new energy vehicle sales after subsidy extension, and the actual impact of geopolitical situations on lithium ore supply [4][5]. Polysilicon - Market Trend: The polysilicon futures continued to decline. The main 2605 contract fell 0.56% from the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 48,670 yuan/ton [10][12]. - Core Logic: After the market supervision department's约谈, the silicon material price will return to cost - based competition. The supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory is at a three - year high. The futures price may continue to fluctuate weakly, and it has reached a six - month low [12]. - Technical Analysis: The positions continued to decline. The 5 - minute and overnight 2 - hour cycles show certain trends, with the long - short dividing line at 53,610 yuan/ton [12]. - Strategy Suggestion: Wait for low - buying opportunities after stabilization as the decline amplitude is narrowing [12]. - Follow - up Focus: The subsequent policy direction of "anti - involution" [13]. Industrial Silicon - Market Trend: The industrial silicon futures fluctuated. The 2605 contract decreased 0.29% from the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 8,730 yuan/ton [16]. - Core Logic: It is controlled by short positions. The supply and demand are both weak, the downstream procurement is sluggish, and the inventory is at a three - year high. There is cost support below, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [16]. - Technical Analysis: The overall positions continued to decline. The 5 - minute and overnight 2 - hour cycles show certain trends, with the long - short dividing line at 8,815 yuan/ton [16]. - Strategy Suggestion: In the middle of the oscillation range, short on rebounds. Long - term attention should be paid to the impact of polysilicon's return to cost - based pricing on industrial silicon. Refer to the band winner indicator in the 8:30 morning live - broadcast for intraday operations [16]. - Follow - up Focus: The subsequent policy direction of "anti - involution" [17].